ANNAPOLIS, Md. -- As Washington grapples with rebooting the nation's tax code, a new report makes a compelling argument for eliminating tax breaks for the fossil fuel industry.
Peter Erickson, senior scientist and the study's lead author, said market forces - such as current oil prices - would prevent industry from tapping reserves that scientists warn need to stay in the ground to prevent the most catastrophic impacts of climate change. But taxpayer-funded subsidies are tilting the scale in favor of more drilling.
"Just these subsidies that we looked at would bring on about 6 (billion) or 7 billion tons of CO2,” Erickson said. "That's about 20 percent of all the oil that we could produce between now and 2050."
The study, by the Stockholm Environment Institute and Earth Track, found nearly half of all known U.S. oil reserves are dependent on subsidies. Erickson explained pollution from those reserves would put a big dent in the nation's carbon budget - the total amount of fuel that can be burned while keeping global temperatures below dangerous levels.
Industry groups have argued that tax breaks are necessary to keep and create jobs.
Researchers found that when oil prices are down, tax breaks prop up returns for investors. And Erickson said when prices go up, the subsidies flow directly into a company's overall profits.
"These dollars are not going to greater wages or to greater jobs,” he said. "Most of the value of these subsidies goes directly to corporate profits, over and above what they already need in order to employ people on the ground."
Erickson said tax breaks could be used to create jobs in industries with better long-term prospects. He pointed to last week's announcement by General Motors that they would be moving to 100 percent electric vehicles, and China's decision to ban cars that use diesel.
"The way we structure our tax code really reflects our priorities as a country,” Erickson said. "Are we going to subsidize things that give us a better future, or are we going to subsidize the old industries that are creating lots of pollution?"
The prospect for cutting subsidies remains uncertain. A separate report by Oil Change International found that in the 2015-2016 election cycle, oil, gas and coal companies invested $354 million in campaign contributions and lobbying, and got nearly $30 billion in federal subsidies - a return of more than 8,000 percent.
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Kentucky House lawmakers are considering a bill that could make it harder to close aging coal-fired power plants.
At the Kentucky Resources Council, Program Attorney Bryon Gary said the bill is part of the larger legislative effort to tip the state's energy planning process in favor of the coal industry.
He explained Senate Bill 349 would create a new "energy planning and inventory" commission tasked with reviewing utilities' plans to retire their aging plants.
"To artificially limit what resources a utility can build," said Gary, "and to artificially require them to keep running power plants that are well beyond their useful life and incredibly expensive to run, is just going to make the problem worse."
The bill's sponsor, state Sen. Robby Mills, R-Henderson, and supporters say the change is needed to ensure the state has a reliable power supply.
Kentucky has several aging coal-fired power plants from the 1970s and 1980s that are no longer economically competitive and are set to be decommissioned within several years.
President of LG&E and KU Energy John Crockett said creating the new commission isn't in customers' best interest.
"It's a group that's almost entirely without expertise in generating or distributing electricity," said Crockett. "And it's designed to promote and perpetuate coal generation outside of a traditional 'least cost reasonable' analysis that has served Kentucky well for decades."
Gary added the bill also would impose a six-month deadline for the state's utility regulator to make decisions for certain types of cases.
He said this could silence voices from low-income communities and other groups affected by rate hikes.
"And would weaken the due process protections for all parties involved," said Gary, "by shortening the timeline for things that are essential to make sure that cases are fully heard and vetted, such as discovery and a hearing and briefing of all the parties."
The Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet and the Public Service Commission warn the bill doesn't allocate funds to cover costs related to the new commission.
They're also concerned about the bill's time limit for fuel adjustment clause proceedings, which help return millions of dollars in utility bill refunds to Kentucky customers.
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New York's state lawmakers are considering a measure that would shake up the way Long Island's power grid operates.
The Long Island Power Authority Public Power Act would make LIPA the sole operator of the grid, ending the long-standing public-private model. Residents feel this model has made communication between ratepayers and their power company inefficient.
Ryan Madden, climate and energy campaigns director for the Long Island Progressive Coalition, said the status quo creates something akin to "a game of unnecessary telephone."
"For example, an issue is raised, and it's brought either from the LIPA board or LIPA staff brings it to the LIPA board," Madden explained. "It then has to be passed along to PSE&G. PSE&G takes weeks, months in order to come back. Then they have to bring in the Department of Public Service of Long Island."
In 2023, numerous groups from Long Island and the Rockaways called for an end to this model, and customers have expressed concerns over how Long Island power responds to bad weather. After Superstorm Sandy, PSE&G replaced National Grid as the third-party manager because people felt the company mishandled power restoration to the area.
Residents have a similar feeling for how PSE&G dealt with the aftermath of Tropical Storm Isaias.
The bill is under review by the Assembly's Corporations, Authorities and Commissions Committee.
Supporters have contended that replacing the public-private model would put more money back in ratepayers' pockets. A 2023 study found that a fully public Long Island grid could save ratepayers around $500 million over the next decade.
Madden said terminating PSE&G's contract would create some of the initial savings.
"There's been some ranges depending on conservative estimates," he noted. "Anywhere from $60 million to $80 million saved in the functioning of the utility, right? So we're getting rid of $80 million in management fees for PSE&G."
Madden said LIPA could use some of the savings to make improvements in the grid, expand programs and increase stakeholder input. He also said he thinks this will help make the grid more climate-efficient in a way that doesn't further disadvantage certain communities.
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Minnesota already has a law calling for 100% carbon-free electricity by 2040. Now, there's a similar plan for transportation, and a legislative committee will consider the idea today.
The clean transportation standard has a target year of 2050 for phasing out carbon-intensive fuel sources for cars and trucks.
Producers slow to adapt would have to buy credits, while companies distributing cleaner products would receive incentives.
Transportation accounts for about a quarter of Minnesota's greenhouse gas emissions, and Fresh Energy's Senior Lead for Innovation and Impact Margaret Cherne-Hendrick said this approach could help reduce that total.
She pointed to newer types of biofuels, beyond standards like ethanol.
"For example, winter oil seeds are better for the environment," said Cherne-Hendrick. "They require much less fertilizer. "
University of Minnesota researchers note these seeds could benefit parts of the transportation sector that face challenges in going electric, such as heavy-duty trucks.
Under the bill, fuel sources would be graded on their carbon intensity - to determine where they rate with the standard.
Skeptics, including some environmental researchers, say the plan could have unintended consequences in reducing emissions.
State Senate Transportation Committee Chair Scott Dibble - DFL-Minneapolis - said while there's a strong push for electric vehicle adoption, many people right now still have to buy cars powered by traditional fuel sources.
"The market penetration is still very small for EVs," said Dibble, "and they're going to own and operate that liquid fuel-based car for the coming 20 plus years."
As the EV market takes shape, he said it makes sense to fill these other cars with the cleanest fuels possible.
There's still a lot to sort out in establishing the standard, and Dibble acknowledged it might have to start as a goal, given the current state of fuel technology.
His bill calls for a one-time appropriation of $900,000 for implementation, but Dibble insisted the incentives market would largely support itself in the long-term.
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