LANSING, Mich. - Michigan's shift from blue to red in the 2016 presidential election could be an outlier, according to new research.

The 'States of Change' report examines the ways generational changes could shape the next five presidential elections, from an aging eligible voter population to a more diverse and better educated electorate.

Report co-author William Frey - senior fellow at the Brookings Institution's Metropolitan Policy Program - said the findings suggest 11 swing states that voted Republican in 2016 could shift to Democratic by 2036, with Michigan "going blue" as early as the 2020 election.

"If things stay the same as they are now, it would be difficult for the Republicans to take over," said Frey. "But I think both parties are interested in getting as many voters as they can and will pay attention to this underlying demographic structure. Demography doesn't determine destiny, but it certainly shapes it in a big way."

Frey noted a growing movement toward Republicans among white, non-college voters could potentially counter demographic changes.

Between now and 2036, Millennial and "Gen Z" voters are expected to increase from 36% of Michigan's electorate to 59%, while "Boomer" voters and older will drop from 40% to 20%.

Conservative pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson - partner and co-founder of Echelon Insights - called the findings an alarm bell for Republicans, whom she said she believes need to listen more closely to younger voters and find new ways to talk about free markets and limited government.

"Talk a little bit more about how the things conservatives believe, not just in numbers and nuts and bolts, but in terms of improving people's lives and opening doors of opportunity," said Anderson. "That's the message for a Republican that wants the way forward. Why the things they believe create fairer outcomes. We can't just talk about tradition and ideology."

Tara McGowan - founder and CEO of ACRONYM, a network of Democratic advocacy groups - contended the left shouldn't take the support of key demographics for granted.

She said younger generations want candidates who understand the problems of today, and have the courage of their convictions to get to work.

"We have been through so many years now of gridlock and the inability to actually meet the challenges of this moment," said McGowan. "And I really do think that the majority of voters, especially younger, want to see things get done, and they're going to have a very high bar for what kinds of solutions are presented."

The report notes the findings are simulations about how the electorate might evolve, and not predictions about the outcomes of elections.


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North Dakota's June 11 primary is inching closer and those running for legislative seats are trying to win over voters, including Native American candidates who are part of a movement energized by newly drawn political boundaries.

The organization North Dakota Native Vote said there are seven candidates with Indigenous roots seeking spots in the Legislature. Most are running in District 9, which was recently updated to reflect representation needs for two Native American tribes.

Natasha Gourd, a board member of North Dakota Native Vote, described them as a good mixture of candidates coming from both reservations in the area, with some running as Democrats and others as Republicans.

"We've seen an upturn in participation and just getting leadership development through Native candidates," Gourd observed.

The election wave comes after the state saw 10 Native candidates in legislative races two years ago. For her group, Gourd acknowledged the boost can be tricky because they cannot endorse everyone running. But she noted having greater assurances the areas will be represented by people from their community -- no matter if they have a different stance on certain issues -- is still a positive.

Gourd added trying to build on the momentum is also important for off-reservation districts.

"What they do at the state level, regardless of Native American people in North Dakota (being part of) federally recognized tribes, it does affect us," Gourd pointed out. "Most Natives in North Dakota do live off the reservation, so it does affect our populations."

Gourd stressed they need more Native voices at the state level speaking out about priorities within education, the housing crisis, energy issues and health care. She hopes the positive trends they're seeing inspire more civic participation among other racial and ethnic groups trying to get a seat at the policy table in North Dakota.

A new poll finds a near 20-year low in the number of voters who say they have a high interest in the 2024 election, with a majority saying they hold negative views of both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. A group of Arizona elections officials and experts recently gathered to discuss the growing discontent with the state's current electoral landscape.

Stephen Richer, Maricopa County Recorder, said that if politicians are what he calls "single-minded seekers of re-election," he contends the state should change the political incentive structure.

"And if those incentives will change, then maybe we will be talking about more things in the Arizona Voter's Agenda and less things that are currently right now incentivized by what I still believe to be a minority, but a very passionate, very loud, and a minority that is definitely committed to acting on those issues," he said.

Richer added it is important to remember that despite Independent and unaffiliated voters being able to participate in the July 30th statewide primary, they were excluded from the state's March Presidential Preference Election, and that has caught the eye of some in the state. The bipartisan group Make Elections Fair Arizona is pushing for open primaries, but proponents of closed primaries believe they're crucial to maintaining the integrity of party ideals.

Amanda Burke, executive vice president with the non-partisan, nonprofit organization Center for the Future of Arizona, said more than half of unaffiliated voters do not feel they have leaders or candidates running who speak to the issues and causes they care about. She contends that then translates to who decides to show up at the ballot box and vote, and encourages Arizonans to imagine a different primary system if they want different outcomes.

"Otherwise we are going to continue to have some more outcomes in terms of people who are incentivized to speak to a small percentage of their base on either side who are really not representative of the larger views," she explained.

The Grand Canyon State allows voter-initiated amendments to the state constitution, but the Arizona Require Partisan Primary Elections Amendment would add the state's current primary practice to the state constitution, prohibiting future changes without another constitutional amendment. Make Elections Fair Arizona is still collecting signatures to get its measure on the November ballot.


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Wisconsin women have made progress in closing gaps when it comes to being elected to public office.

But some voices worry the movement might slow down as candidates see increasing levels of threats and harassment.

The Brennan Center for Justice recently issued findings that detail the threatening behavior those in the political arena are experiencing now.

Women were three to four times as likely as men to experience abuse targeting their gender.

Erin Vilardi, CEO and founder of the advocacy and assistance group Vote Run Lead, said this creates more unfairness in areas such as resource planning for a campaign.

"We see women candidates and incumbents right now having to pay for security," said Vilardi, "having to put in their budgets, in their campaign funds, in their line-items for their campaigns a security detail."

And Vilardi said because of the worsening climate, the threats are extending to almost all other candidates, including conservative white men.

She and other researchers called on party leaders to strongly condemn political violence. They also recommend that each state implement stronger protection for officeholders.

Vilardi said it's not just women candidates and incumbents having to deal with this behavior. Women working as top aides and political journalists are subject to more hateful rhetoric these days.

"This is something that permeates women in politics," said Vilardi, "not just for the folks that are stepping up to lead but for the ecosystem of women around them."

And if more women decide not to run or seek re-election as a result, Vilardi said this means there will be fewer opportunities for gender equality in leadership positions in state legislatures and Congress.

She urged constituents to send messages of support to women officeholders as they weigh these challenges and their political futures.

Support for this reporting was provided by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.



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