By Lee Banville for The Conversation.
Broadcast version by Mark Moran for Big Sky Connection reporting for the Rural News Network-Public News Service Collaboration

Jon Tester has never had it easy.

The three-term Democratic senator from Montana has scored more than 50% of the vote only once in his three runs for the U.S. Senate, attracting 50.3% of the vote in 2018 against state auditor and future U.S. Rep. Matt Rosendale.

This year, Tester’s always-perilous path to reelection seems narrower and more harrowing than ever before. And the outcome could determine whether the Senate remains in Democratic control or flips to the Republicans.

Current polls and political prognosticators are even starting to turn on the moderate from the farming community of Big Sandy with the flattop haircut. FiveThirtyEight has Tester’s opponent, former Navy SEAL and businessman Tim Sheehy, up four percentage points, and the venerable Cook Political Report has gone so far as to say the race “leans Republican.”

For Montana State University political scientist Jessi Bennion, this election may be the end of an era in rural America.

“I used to always call Tester the unicorn candidate because there was no one like him,” she told my students a couple of weeks back. “He was a farmer, he was a rural Democrat, the last rural Democrat.”

The end of the unicorn?

I teach political reporting at the University of Montana School of Journalism, and every two years I send students out to interview candidates, profile races and talk with voters. It is true that the state has changed even since Tester won in 2018.

Despite an influx of outsiders over the past decade, Montana is still a sparsely populated state boasting 1.1 million people in the latest census. Though the state has historically relied on mining and timber for much of its economy, new economic activity in tourism and technology have helped fuel a 10% jump in population in the most recent census.

But with that influx, housing costs have soared and so have property taxes. It also leaves one of Montana’s political traditions in danger.

See, Montana has a history of doing something very few people do these days – ticket splitting, when a person votes in an election for candidates from opposing parties. In a time of deep polarization, it is hard to imagine, but out here in the Rocky Mountains and the northern plains, voters would consistently vote for a Republican for president and often for the Legislature, but also for Democrat Jon Tester.

Tester was able to put together a coalition of voters in the few pockets of liberals – college towns such as Missoula, union strongholds such as Butte and Indigenous voters on the reservation – and carve away enough moderate voters in more rural areas to eke out wins. When I moved here in 2009, it was not just Tester who did this. Back then, Montana had a Democratic governor, attorney general and head of schools. But over time those statewide offices have all gone, often by double digits, to Republicans.

No Democrat has won statewide since Tester did it back in 2018.

Migration and the march from purple to red

Then COVID-19 hit Montana.

The state saw a surge in population, jumping nearly 5% between 2020 and 2023, and experts such as political scientist Jeremy Johnson told my students earlier this fall that it is important to know who these new residents are.

“I still think the race, you know, can be competitive,” Johnson said. “I do think that some of my broader themes here – the polarization, the calcification, the reluctance to ticket split – makes it harder for Tester. Plus, I think there is some evidence that more Republican-leaning voters have moved to the state than Democrat-leaning voters in the last few years.”

One analysis reported on by the Montana Free Press found that for every two Democrats who moved to Montana since 2008, three Republicans did.

Montana does not have party registration, so when you vote in a primary, they give you a ballot for both parties, and you choose the one you want to participate in. In the highly publicized U.S. Senate primary this year, only 36% of primary voters voted in the Democratic primary, while 64% chose to vote in the Republican primary.

The one question mark of 2024

Ask Sen. Tester, and he will say his campaign is anything but over. He is stressing his independence from his political party, how Republican President Donald Trump signed bills he sponsored and his long-running support of veterans as cornerstones of his campaign.

But his path to reelection may run right through Roe v. Wade.

Montana’s constitution was written in 1972, and it has some pretty progressive elements, including a right to a clean environment and an explicit right to privacy, as opposed to the more implied one in the U.S. Constitution. And in 1999, the state Supreme Court said that right to privacy included abortion access.

Still, in part to ensure that a later court decision could not strip away that right, voters have put CI-128 on the ballot this fall, which would explicitly include protection for abortion access in the state constitution.

Tester hit the issue hard in his last debate with Sheehy on Sept. 30, 2024.

“The bottom line is this: Whose decision is it to be made?” Tester said during the debate. “Is it the federal government’s decision, the state government’s decision, Tim Sheehy’s decision, Jon Tester’s decision? No, it’s the woman’s decision. Tim Sheehy’s called abortion ‘terrible’ and ‘murder.’ That doesn’t sound to me like he’s supporting the woman to make that decision.”

Tester’s supporters hope the initiative could inspire younger voters and moderate women to flock to the polls this fall, and that might make Tester’s path to reelection a bit more doable.

But it is going to take a bit of unicorn magic, perhaps, for Tester to win a fourth term.

Back at Montana State University, Bennion said the situation looks pretty dire for the Democrats in rural states.

“I don’t see, unless our state changes in a lot of different ways, I don’t see a Democrat winning in a long time,” he said. “Just the way our state is growing, the kind of person that is moving here and voting.”


This story was originally produced by Lee Banville for The Conversation as part of the Rural News Network, an initiative of the Institute for Nonprofit News (INN), supporting more than 475 independent, nonprofit news organizations.


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A government watchdog group is joining others in raising concerns about last-minute additions to the budget reconciliation bill passed by the House of Representatives and now before the Senate. The Campaign Legal Center says one provision would weaken the power of U.S. judges to enforce contempt when the government defies court orders. It comes after federal courts have thwarted some of President Donald Trump's recent policies.

Trevor Potter, Campaign Legal Center president, said the "Founding Fathers" were trying to prevent a president from behaving like a "king" when they established three separate but equal branches of government.

"What's happened here is that members of the Republican party in Congress think their job is, or their duty is, to support the presidency whatever they do and not act as a check on the presidency," he explained.

Trump has repeatedly attacked judges who oppose his policies and his administration has refused to abide by their orders - even those issued by the U.S. Supreme Court. Potter believes the White House is trying to expand and consolidate executive powers over Congress and the courts - which he says poses major risks to American democracy and the rule of law.

A second provision inserted in the bill at the last minute has raised the ire of both Democrats and Republicans. It includes a 10-year moratorium on state and local governments to regulate the use of artificial intelligence in political campaigns and elections.

Catherine Hinckley Kelley, senior director, Policy & Strategic Partnerships with the Campaign Legal Center, said 20 states, including New Mexico, already have adopted such laws.

"States have acted, but now with this provision in the reconciliation bill, states would be unable to enforce those laws and limit the use of AI in elections," she explained.

Congress has not passed its own A-I regulation bill. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-GA, a fierce supporter of President Trump, said Tuesday she would not have voted for the bill if she had known about the A-I provision, contending it would violate state rights.


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Voters in the Commonwealth have only a few more weeks to cast early ballots in the Democratic and Republican primary elections.

Virginia voters have until June 14 to cast an early vote in the primary. According to the Virginia Public Access Project, nearly 60,000 Virginians have filled out ballots as of May 20.

Karen Hult, professor of political science at Virginia Tech University, said many voters have children starting their summer breaks or leaving college after finals around this time of year. She noted the timing of the vote and a lack of contested races could mean low voter turnout on Election Day.

"They're also thinking about, 'what are we going to do for summer vacation?' and things like that," Hult acknowledged. "The context right now, in many parts of Virginia, is not really necessarily having people focus on there being an election right around the corner."

Democratic voters will decide on their statewide nominees for Attorney General and Lieutenant Governor, along with nominees for some competitive seats in the House of Delegates. There are no statewide nomination contests for Republican voters but voters can weigh in on House of Delegates nominees in some districts and other local offices.

Hult pointed out national politics can often filter into state races, explaining voters tend to go against the sitting President's party.

"There is a tendency in the state of Virginia for the gubernatorial nominee or candidate that's elected to be of the opposite party of the President," Hult observed. "That's what has many Republicans in the state looking over their shoulders and saying, 'This is a tough election. We really, really, really need to protect the Republican brand moving forward.'"

Polling trends agree with Hult's assessment. A recent Roanoke College poll last week found Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger with a 17-point lead over Republican nominee Winsome Earl-Sears.

Voters who want to cast a mail-in ballot must submit an application to their local election office by Friday, June 6 at 5 p.m. It must be returned by June 14. Polls are open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Election Day, June 17.


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In South Dakota and across the country, groups are working to help tone down the nation's heated political rhetoric. And experts are debating whether the divisive landscape will see a correction.

In a forum hosted by the R Street Institute, panelists noted this isn't the only time in U.S. history when populism and an anti-establishment mood were major forces in politics.

Emily Chamlee-Wright, president and CEO of the Institute for Humane Studies, said as bad as things might feel right now, it doesn't mean America is in grave danger of falling apart.

"We have this resilience baked in," said Chamlee-Wright, "but that doesn't mean that we can sit back and just wait for it, either."

Chamlee-Wright said as people lose faith in U.S. institutions, skeptics should take a step back and see their value.

And if enough people can feel a shared sense of those benefits, it should become easier to practice civil discourse in everyday life.

In the state's largest city, a new organization - Stronger Sioux Falls - just launched. Officials say they want to create spaces for meaningful dialogue about important issues facing the city.

Chamlee-Wright said her organization adheres to a set of guiding principles it feels keep society glued together. They include toleration, under the freedom of speech umbrella.

"If we do that well, the outcome is that our conversations are better," said Chamlee-Wright. "But that's not just fluffy stuff - it means that we're much better equipped to see the humanity of every other person."

She said by sticking to these practices in informal settings, America's formal structures will be in much better shape in the long run.

She added that should allow voters and policymakers to take on complex challenges, and solve them in ways that go beyond the bare minimum effort.



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