LANSING, Mich. - It's not a crystal ball, but a group of researchers say a new tool can help Michigan and other states grapple with predicting and planning for the most cost-effective and least risky ways to cut back on coal.
Douglas Jester with the consulting group Five Lakes Energy says in order to meet the requirements of the Clean Power Plan, states will either need to increase their use of natural gas, or rely on renewable energy sources like wind and solar.
But given fluctuating prices and rapidly changing technology, figuring out which way to go can be a bit of a gamble.
"Whichever path we choose, we're placing a bet on future prices, particularly of natural gas," says Jester.
Researchers at the University of Michigan's Energy Institute, along with Jester and his team, developed a model to help states take into account every factor in determining the best plan for utilities and ratepayers. Using that tool, Jester calculates the state could retire far more coal-fired power plants and reduce air pollution by replacing coal with natural gas, as opposed to renewable sources - provided natural gas prices stay low.
Jester says the issue is further complicated by the fact the decisions states will make won't happen in a vacuum, as the price of fuel, and to some extent, technology, will depend on demand.
"If a lot of states follow the path of converting from coal to natural gas, that will significantly increase the consumption of natural gas, and raise the price of natural gas," he says.
The Clean Power Plan calls for states to reduce power plant carbon emissions by 30 percent from 2005 levels by 2030.
In a recent address, Governor Rick Snyder said he'd like to have between 30 and 40 percent of Michigan's energy needs met by a combination of renewable energy and reducing energy waste through energy-efficiency efforts over the next 10 years.
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In last week's election, South Dakota voters defeated the carbon pipeline law by a wide margin, but pipeline companies could still gain ground in neighboring states. Nearly 60% of South Dakota voters said "no" to Referred Law 21, which would have imposed regulations to linear transmission facilities that favored industry over landowners. The law was largely driven by Summit Carbon Solutions' proposed 2,500 mile pipeline that would run through five states and store carbon underground in North Dakota.
Landowner advocate Ed Fischbach noted at a press event that the win was impressive considering that ethanol producers backed the law with nearly $3-million of campaign support.
"I think we won 65 of the 66 counties. And even though we were outspent about 50-to-1, we're very happy that we have prevailed on this. But we know the fight's not over," he said.
According to reporting from the North Dakota Monitor, Iowa has already granted Summit a permit. In Minnesota, where the company can't use eminent domain to get through certain properties, the state's Public Utilities Commission is expected to vote next month on a short segment of the pipeline.
Summit has said it will reapply for a permit through the South Dakota Public Utilities Commission next week after being denied one last year. But Chase Jensen of Dakota Rural Action said on the press call that this is the eighth consecutive month Summit has said it will reapply.
State Sen.-elect Joy Hohn, R-Hartford, who said she's excited to work on "eminent domain reform" at the Statehouse, was also on the call.
"We really have had a grassroots movement across South Dakota with a lot of new conservative legislators, and I am hopeful and think that we will bring forth a lot of good legislation that will protect our private property rights and keep our freedoms intact where they should be," she explained.
Hohn said pipeline rules are also expected from the Department of Transportation and the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration.
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President-elect Donald Trump's agenda for "energy dominance" could majorly impact leaders in the sector, including the state of Wyoming and the Tribes there. But some say the industry might have limited tolerance for blanket policy shifts. Before the election, the University of Wyoming hosted this year's Tribal Energy Summit, where major themes were carbon capture, rare earth elements and critical minerals and community engagement. After the election, there are questions about how far Trump will sidestep the nation's momentum toward renewable energy.
Daniel Cardenas, CEO of the National Tribal Energy Association and co-founder with the National Tribal Energy Association, expects the next Trump administration to look similar to the last one.
"They weren't outright anti-renewable. They were just preaching an "all-above" strategy, with more of a focus on fossil energy. But I think that's probably the route that things will go, which supports what Wyoming's already doing during Governor Gordon's administration is "all- the-above," he said.
Cardenas added despite campaign rhetoric, industry leaders see opportunities in a varied approach to energy production. Exxon Mobil's CEO this week urged Trump to stay in the Paris climate agreement, which Trump promised to back out of in 2017.
A vast majority of the U.S. reserves of key energy-transition metals are located within 35 miles of Native American reservations, according to the investment firm MSCI. Cardenas says tribes have been left out of the conversation on the energy transition-which he calls the "energy evolution"- but that they could be key partners.
"Collectively, tribes are the largest private landowners in the United States outside the federal government. So no matter what, if the country needs and wants to develop more infrastructure, the path to that is through Indian Country," Cardenas added.
Investments in clean energy-especially in red states like Wyoming-are foundational to President Biden's 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which Trump has called a "green new scam." Trump's power to change Biden's law, however, may be limited by Congress.
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An electric cooperative supplying power to Western Colorado is pioneering energy independence for homes, businesses and farms.
They are creating a virtual power plant, a network connecting residential rooftop solar and battery storage to smart appliances such as heat pumps, electric vehicles and water heaters.
Lisa Reed, energy programs manager for Holy Cross Energy, said the microgrid can be tapped to keep the lights on when power lines from coal and gas fired plants are disrupted.
"Holy Cross Energy is implementing the use of virtual power plants to help with resilience, both for large events such as wildfires, but also smaller events, to keep our power reliable," Reed explained.
Holy Cross is standing up virtual power plants by providing affordable home battery storage options to members who subscribe to their Power+ program. The batteries store energy when demand is low and supply power during peak times or outages. Virtual power plants also reduce reliance on costly, polluting energy from coal and gas-fired units.
Tyler McDermott, regional organizer for the Western Colorado Alliance, said virtual power plants are also important for national security. If a hacker wants to take out a power grid, they can target a single conventional power plant but it is much harder to knock out a decentralized grid extending across entire communities. Microgrids also cost ratepayers 40% to 60% less than building coal or gas powered plants.
"We all want to pay less for our energy, we all want our lights to turn on when we flip the switch, we want our ACs to work in the hot summers," McDermott outlined. "Virtual power plants are the answer to one of the biggest problems that we're facing all across the nation but especially in rural communities."
Reed noted networked residential and business batteries also help community members save money on their electric bills in the middle of the day, when energy from conventional power plants is the most expensive.
"Holy Cross Energy discharges those batteries onto the grid to reduce our peak load, thus saving money for our members in power supply costs," Reed added.
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