FRANKFORT, Ky. — A new report challenges assertions from Kentucky policymakers that corporate investments are spurring an economic revival.
In its new analysis, The Kentucky Center for Economic Policy said the Cabinet for Economic Development's announcements of potential private business investment are not a reliable barometer of how the state's economy is faring. Executive Director of the think tank, Jason Bailey, said they took a close look at the $9.2 billion in investments announced in 2017.
"We find that about a third of those contain no new jobs,” Bailey said. “Nearly half of them will contain no new jobs if the Braidy Industries project in Northeastern Kentucky doesn't actually materialize, and there are significant questions about whether it will."
Bailey said more than 80 percent of those announcements were from companies already operating in the state, before the state's so-called right-to-work law went into effect. He said that brings into question whether those investments were the result of policy changes.
Gov. Matt Bevin's office dismissed the report in a statement, and said the state has "achieved the highest workforce participation ever and record-low unemployment."
Bailey said the state's investment projections also are not completely accurate because in 2016, the Cabinet stopped releasing a companion report on facilities that close down and eliminate jobs. While he agrees the economy is in recovery, Bailey said it's lopsided.
"We've seen job growth in the Golden Triangle, in Lexington, Louisville, Bowling Green and places like that. Much of rural Kentucky really hasn't seen job growth,” he said. “There's still not enough jobs to where we are back to where we were when the economy was strong, in about the year 2000."
The right-to-work law limits the power of unions to collect dues, and has been touted by Bevin and top Republicans as a factor in corporate investments coming into the Commonwealth. But Bailey argued lower labor standards and expanded tax breaks will not result in strong job creation.
"The most important thing the state can do is really reinvest in things like education, infrastructure that we've let erode over the past decade,” he said. “And that will create the conditions in which we will have small business startups and existing business expansion."
The research found that the state added only 700 jobs per month in the 21 months since right-to-work, in contrast to the 2,100 new jobs a month in the 21 months before it passed.
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Ohio is poised to play a key role in a $20 billion investment announced by President-elect Donald Trump, with plans to establish data centers across the Midwest.
John Highland, director of public service for the City of Canton, is among the local leaders already expressing interest in what he said could be a transformative project.
"We are kind of open and available," Highland pointed out. "I would be willing to talk to anyone about that possibility with the city if we can make it work."
Canton's openness reflects the excitement among Ohio leaders about the economic potential of the initiative. However, as with any large-scale project, experts caution about the need to manage resource demands and ensure equitable benefits for local communities.
In a recent speech, Trump framed the investment as a step toward keeping America at the forefront of advancements in technology, particularly artificial intelligence.
"The investment will support massive new data centers across the Midwest and also keep America on the cutting edge of technology and artificial intelligences," Trump said. "The first phase of the project will be in Texas, Arizona, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, and Indiana."
For Ohioans, the announcement could mean new jobs and infrastructure development but it also raises questions about long-term sustainability and local impacts on resources like energy and water.
Hussein Sajwani, founder of DAMAC Properties, shared his excitement about expanding his company's operations in the U.S., citing the nation's pro-business environment.
"We're planning to invest $20 billion in data centers catering for the AI and cloud business for the hyperscalers," Sajwani announced. "We're very, very excited now with his leadership."
With Ohio positioned as a key beneficiary of this massive investment, the state could see significant economic growth in the coming years.
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The next legislative session is approaching in Olympia and Washington state's budget shortfall will be one of the biggest topics.
A gap of $10 billion to $12 billion is expected over the next four years.
Jerry Cornfield, a reporter for the nonprofit newsroom Washington State Standard, said a number of ideas have been thrown out. He noted Democrats are considering increasing taxes on businesses and wealth or excise taxes.
"They've also talked about a higher tax on the sales of super expensive properties," Cornfield explained. "They're really targeting wealthy individuals and large businesses in many of their proposals."
Cornfield pointed out the budget deficit could make it difficult to fund other priorities such as in education. Because of the gap, he does not foresee major changes in education funding this session. Republicans said reducing spending is the better option for shrinking the deficit. The session starts Monday.
On the housing front, Cornfield observed stabilization went far in previous sessions and could be on deck this session.
"Democrats are going to try to push it across the finish line and to the governor's desk this session," Cornfield projected. "They have more members in each the House and the Senate. They seem poised to really impose a statewide limit on rent increases -- monthly rent increases or annual rent increases -- of some percentage."
Cornfield stressed the priorities of newly elected Governor Bob Ferguson will likely determine the direction of the session. He added some nonbudget related topics could surface, such as reducing the blood-alcohol level for drunken driving. Gun-related legislation usually bubbles up too.
"There are bills again being introduced that would further narrow where people can openly carry weapons," Cornfield reported. "There's also going to be probably a good fight on this bill requiring individuals to have a permit before they purchase a weapon."
Cornfield said the legislation could involve a gun safety class for people to get a permit.
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North Dakota lawmakers gather in Bismarck today for a new legislative session and as they settle in, they will have public polling data to analyze ahead of final votes down the road.
Today's events mainly consist of speeches, including the governor's state of the state address. When committee hearings are eventually heard, legislators face pressure from the public to tackle property tax reform.
A new poll from DFM Research showed 81% of those surveyed support such a move. Last fall, voters rejected largely doing away with local property taxes, keeping the revenue tool in hand for communities.
Dean Mitchell, owner of DFM Research, said it is clear voters want such a balance.
"People understand that property taxes are in the mix to fund schools but they do want that reform," Mitchell reported. "I think that's the number one issue in the realm of education."
The second-highest priority in the poll, commissioned by the teacher's union ND United, was universal lunches. Among respondents, 79% support providing no-cost school meals to all students, regardless of their family's income. Meanwhile, 68% oppose public money being used for private school tuition.
All the issues are expected to be debated this session. Some bills might vary in their language, namely school choice, with differing views on various models being floated. Mitchell noted North Dakota voters appear to be in tune with the public education landscape and what their district's needs are, versus trends, such as private vouchers, seen in other parts of the country.
"I think it's just kind of that common sense nature of North Dakotans (being) a little bit more closely tied to their community," Mitchell observed.
He added the poll results reinforce long-standing sentiments. The survey was conducted last month with 600 voters from around the state interviewed via landline, mobile phone and text-by-web.
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