CHARLESTON, W.Va. - The West Virginia Legislature has passed a 40 percent cut in thermal coal severance taxes, despite Revenue Department predictions that it would do little to change steam coal's steady decline.
The long-term outlook is no better, said Carey King, a research scientist and assistant director of the University of Texas' Energy Institute. King said thermal coal, used to generate electricity, has a lot stacked against it. Natural gas is likely to stay cheap and renewables will continue to drop in price, while demand for electricity is flat.
King said most coal plants are old, and the cost of a new plant is too big to risk.
" 'Big' means over a few billion dollars," he said, "and when you don't have electricity demand increasing, it is hard to commit to large electricity-generation projects, but much easier to commit to smaller projects - like natural gas, wind and solar - and in addition, they're cheaper, anyways."
The coal industry has argued that lower taxes and less environmental regulation would prompt a boom in mining jobs. According to the state Office of Miners' Health, Safety and Training, about 8 percent more coal miners are working now than two years ago, although many are producing metallurgical coal for making steel, not thermal coal.
Critics have argued that even eliminating severance taxes would not make Appalachian steam coal competitive with coal from mines in the western United States.
David Schlissel, director of resource planning analysis for the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, said another trend is emerging that will help renewables at the expense of all fossil fuels - huge, grid scale batteries and pumped storage.
"And it's a real game-changer, will be storage," he said. "There are plans for substantial amounts - California definitely, and New York, I think, is still talking about it. And storage will make it increasingly difficult for coal and natural gas to compete."
He said storage will make the electric grid more reliable, even as it shifts to intermittent sources such as sunshine and wind. As more storage comes online, its price will fall, he said, much like the price of renewables.
The legislation to cut thermal-coal severance taxes now is on the governor's desk.
More information is online at wvpolicy.org. The text of House Bill 3142 is at wvlegislature.gov.
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Missouri homes and businesses have installed enough solar energy to power 68,000 homes each year.
A new report released by the Solar Energy Industries Association showed more than half of all solar installations in the United States have come online since 2020, with more than 25% installed since the Inflation Reduction Act passed almost two years ago.
Abigail Ross Hopper, president and CEO of the association, noted for Missouri farmers and rural residents, the most significant expense is power, needed for pumps, heating grow houses and running equipment.
"They're not paying for the sunshine," Ross Hopper pointed out. "And so, when they install solar to run their pump, or when they install solar on top of a chicken house, it saves an incredible amount of money because they are now using the sun to energize their system."
The report noted in 2012, only California had more than 25,000 solar systems installed. Today, 23 states and territories can make that claim, and 11 have surpassed 100,000 solar installations. More than 38,000 are in Missouri, which ranks 34th in the nation.
Ross Hopper emphasized not only is the growth in solar energy happening quickly, but it is sustained and she predicts it will continue to be.
"It took 40 years for the United States to install a million solar projects, and then it only took eight years to get to 5 million, and that is indicative of the rapid growth," Ross Hopper stressed. "We think it'll only take six years to get to 10 million."
She added the solar industry supports the careers of about 2,900 Missourians and has invested $1.6 billion in the state's economy.
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A new rule from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission could improve Virginia's electric grid transmission capacity.
It requires utilities and grid operators to plan 20 years ahead to accommodate expected changes in energy production. The rule is designed to help Virginia meet the high energy demands of the growing data center market and prevent service disruptions in extreme weather.
Nick Guidi, senior attorney for the Southern Environmental Law Center, said the rule will help the state reach its climate goals.
"For the first time in a lot of these states, the transmission planning process will have to explicitly take into account state goals and corporate clean energy goals," Guidi explained. "That hasn't really happened before."
He added the current process holds back state activity. The rule faced sharp criticism from FERC Commissioner Mark Christie. He characterizes it as a way to enact policies never passed by Congress and calls it "a blatant violation of the major questions doctrine." Guidi thinks it could lead to legal challenges.
Another new rule makes transmission siting easier.
Jon Gordon, policy director for the group Advanced Energy United, feels the FERC orders create advancements in transmission infrastructure development, calling it an arduous but necessary process to improve transmission capacity.
"I think as a country we've sort of gotten behind the 8-ball on upgrading our transmission infrastructure," Gordon asserted. "Now we've reached a point where we need to move quickly on transmission upgrades to ensure reliability."
He added more comprehensive long-term transmission planning is needed to ensure the lowest-cost transmission is built for reliability.
Virginia passed legislation making transmission easier. It comes as the state's grid operator, PJM Interconnection, which ranked poorly in a report due to a backlog of interconnection projects. The law means an additional 40% capacity for the current grid and saves the state congestion costs.
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A federal agency today is expected to announce reforms related to the power grid, which is stretched thin as the nation transitions away from fossil fuels.
It's a complex issue clean-energy advocates in the Midwest know far too well.
There's a push to expand transmission lines to accommodate the tidal wave of wind, solar, and other renewable projects.
Rules being unveiled could address the thorny issue of cost-sharing among states for the build-out.
More broadly, the Midwest Renewable Energy Association's Executive Director Nick Hylla said market dynamics are tricky - noting competing interests among utilities and developers in expanding the grid.
He said another issue is protecting wildlife.
"The history of management of transmission lines isn't some solid track record from an environmental-conservation point of view," said Hylla. "We could be doing a much better job in transmission corridors."
In these cases, decarbonization groups and conservationists are at odds with each other. Notably, a recent court ruling is allowing a transmission line project involving Wisconsin to advance.
Hylla said "non-wire alternatives" are emerging to help the movement without turning to the grid.
In Minnesota, Xcel Energy has been testing a program that incentivizes customers to curb energy use during peak demand.
Similar programs are taking shape elsewhere, but industry analysts say these initiatives are navigating their own barriers as they try to get off the ground.
Still, Hylla said an example of this approach along the East Coast is turning some heads.
"It's a BYOB program - Bring Your Own Battery program - that now, over 24,000 customers in three eastern states have subscribed to," said Hylla. "It's basically a subsidy to put a battery in your house and just to make sure that you're not using electricity in peak times. "
As governments, utilities and other entities face pressure to meet climate goals amid soaring demand for electricity, Hylla suggested these solutions will have to work hand-in-hand.
His group is focused on efficiencies, such as rooftop solar, to reshape the distribution of energy.
But he said large-scale renewable projects play a role, too, including the economic benefits for communities in which they're located.
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