MANCHESTER, N.H. -- New Hampshire is a key swing state, and President Donald Trump is holding a rally on Friday in Manchester.

According to news website FiveThirtyEight, Trump is trailing Democratic nominee Joseph Biden here by about 8%, similar to national trends.

Dante Scala, political science professor at the University of New Hampshire, said Trump needs to win over Granite State college-educated men and rural voters, as well as a key group favoring Biden.

"Senior voters, people who are 65 and over," Scala said. "Compared to four years ago, Joe Biden so far has been doing better among seniors than Hillary Clinton did."

Trump is slated to speak near Manchester-Boston Regional Airport Friday at 6:00 p.m. Scala thinks Trump's best strategy is to focus on the economy, arguing he's the better candidate to restore it to pre-COVID heights.

Professor Andy Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, noted before the pandemic, it was a boom market, and most political analysts expected Trump to win re-election.

But now, Smith isn't sure, and not because of the large percentage of "independent" voters in New Hampshire; about 40%.

"You can register Republican, Democrat or undeclared," Smith said. "And if you look at those people who are registered 'undeclared,' they roughly break out about 35% to 38% Democrat, 32% to 35% Republican and the rest of those people are truly independent."

Smith said most real independents are less likely to vote and pay less attention to politics, including going to a rally.


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Like polling from other battleground states, the race for the White House remains close in Wisconsin. But fresh numbers out this week show some momentum shifts.

In early July, ARRP released survey results in Wisconsin following the debate between President Joe Biden and Republican nominee Donald Trump. At that point, Trump had a six-percentage point lead among voters 18 and up in the Badger State. Fast forward to September, and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris leads Trump by a single point for that same demographic in a new Wisconsin poll conducted after their debate.

Pollster Bob Ward described what specifically changed following the summer shakeup on the Democratic ticket.

"The movement among Independents, where Trump was ahead of Biden by five points two months ago, and now Harris is ahead by 11 points," he explained.

The single-point lead for Harris is for a head-to-head matchup question. It's slightly larger when factoring in third-party candidates. However, among Wisconsin voters 50 and older, Trump is ahead by two points. He also maintains more support among male voters around the state, while Harris is strongly backed by women in this latest poll.

The Biden administration has touted its efforts to reduce prescription drug costs for Medicare enrollees, including price negotiations with drugmakers. There's been chatter among Republicans about rolling back those provisions. But Ward said based on the polling data, tinkering with those moves would not sit well with voters.

"We asked this question back in July in Wisconsin, and again here in this poll, and the choice between, you know, supporting a member of Congress who wants to continue negotiating lower drug prices is at 79% - versus support for the member who wants to end negotiating for lower drug prices, [which is] 8%," he said.

The balance of power in the U.S. Senate also is being closely watched this election. In the AARP Wisconsin poll, incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin holds a three-point lead over Republican challenger Eric Hovde among all likely voters.

This week, National Voter Registration Day was another timely reminder for Ohioans preparing for the 2024 general election.

The latest reports from the Center for Election Innovation and Research shed some light on expanded early voting options across the U.S., including in Ohio.

Chris Mann, research director at the center, highlighted some key details for Ohio voters.

"The weekend days that are required in Ohio, that accessibility of early in-person voting, is a really important piece of information for folks who work a traditional workweek," Mann pointed out. "If it's close or if there are close races within Ohio, that process will be playing out about counting mail ballots after Election Day."

According to the center's reports, nearly 97% of U.S. voting-age citizens will have at least one option to vote before Election Day, whether by mail or in person. During the 2020 general election, 69% of votes were cast before Election Day. That's up from 40% in 2016, demonstrating a growing reliance on early voting methods nationwide.

David Becker executive director of the center, said while Ohio's early voting system has been historically accessible, recent changes in ballot return procedures could present challenges for some voters.

"There have been efforts recently, coming from the Secretary of State's office, to make it more difficult for voters to return, for instance, their spouse's ballot or other family members' ballots," Becker noted. "And requiring them to actually come down to the election office and sign a form."

As Ohio prepares for the November election, voters are encouraged to take advantage of early voting options and stay informed about any new regulations. With 47 states offering early voting, Ohio's approach reflects national trends aimed at increasing participation while maintaining election integrity.


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New poll results show 80% of likely Arizona voters believe American democracy is under threat.

The new survey from the Center for the Future of Arizona found just as many believe their vote could improve democracy.

Rep. Greg Stanton, D-Ariz., said with fewer than 50 days until Election Day, there are important issues on the ballot for Arizonans across the political spectrum and it isn't too late to take action.

"I want people finding candidates and causes they believe in, and get out and work on those campaigns," Stanton urged. "Become a volunteer, knock on doors, make calls, become a 'super voter,' if you will."

Stanton's challenger this year is Republican Kelly Cooper, who also ran against him in 2022. Voters in the Grand Canyon State will weigh in, not only on candidates at the national, state and local levels but will decide on more than a dozen statewide propositions. Check your voter registration status online at My.Arizona.Vote.

Stanton acknowledged there are bad actors out there who may want to drive down voter turnout but encouraged Arizonans to remain resilient. The last day to register to vote in order to participate in the Nov. 5 General Election is Oct. 7, a date he wants younger voters to pay close attention to.

"Maybe you're at Arizona State University, which is in my district, you come from another location, register to vote here," Stanton suggested. "We want you to participate in this election, and to have your voice heard for what's going on, not just in education issues but all of the variety of issues that affect your future."

Stanton contended across the country, younger voters need to participate at higher levels and calls it "good for democracy." A recent poll from Florida Atlantic University found 55% of people ages 18-34 said they're "dissatisfied" with their lives. Stanton hopes their dissatisfaction fuels greater turnout among young voters who want change.

Support for this reporting was provided by The Carnegie Corporation of New York.


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