PHOENIX -- With the 2020 election behind them, the next political event in Arizona and other battleground states will be the once-in-a-decade redistricting process. Starting in 2021, states will redraw district boundaries for Congress and state legislatures based on the results of the 2020 census.

In Arizona, some observers anticipate major changes in boundary lines based on growing numbers of Latinos in the state over the past decade. However, Lisa Sanchez, associate professor of political science at the University of Arizona, warns Arizona's much-anticipated "blue wave" may not have arrived just yet.

"The idea that Arizona went blue during this last presidential election, I wouldn't interpret it such that the politics on the ground - in particular the partisan affiliation of individuals in Arizona - have shifted fundamentally," Sanchez said.

Sanchez said while Arizonans did elect Democrats in the presidential and Senate races, it was business as usual for Republicans in congressional seats and the state Legislature. She said the state's electorate remains almost evenly divided between the two major political parties.

She said while Latinos and other people of color showed up at Arizona's polls in record numbers this year, that doesn't necessarily translate into a Democratic advantage in future elections.

"The benefit of having a majority-minority district is you are highly likely to get a co-ethnic or co-racial candidate," she said. "So in the 1990s, we started to see record numbers of Latinos and Blacks being elected to Congress, but surrounding districts now didn't have any minority influence."

Maricopa Country Democratic Party chair Steven Slugocki is taking a long-term view of the gains his party made in 2020 and the effect on redistricting.

"Whenever the maps are done, we're going to have to evaluate them, compare them and see the way that they look and see the breakdown of them and make sure again that we have fair maps," Slugocki said.

Arizona's Independent Redistricting Commission, not the GOP-dominated Legislature, will redraw districts in 2021. The bipartisan panel, created by a ballot initiative in 2000, will begin its work in February, and finish - hopefully - in time for the 2022 midterms.


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A proposal to make Wisconsin's strict Voter ID law a constitutional amendment passed Wisconsin's Republican-controlled Assembly on Tuesday.

Voters will see the proposal on the April 1 ballot. If approved, the state constitution would be amended, which would make the change much harder to repeal in the future. Proponents insist stricter ID requirements help to prevent voter fraud.

Jay Heck, executive director of Common Cause Wisconsin, and other opponents said they also provide a partisan advantage for Republicans.

"All it does is, it reduces the opportunity for certain segments of the population to be able to vote," Heck explained. "It doesn't do anything about preventing fraud, and it's just a voter suppression method."

Heck believes the measure will attract more conservatives to the polls in April. And even if voters reject the idea of changing the constitution, the state's voter ID requirement, which is already among the strictest in the country, would remain.

The state's voter ID law has been long debated for its prohibitive requirements. Wisconsin allows seven forms of identification to be presented at the polls but Heck pointed out they have to meet particular requirements.

"These are forms of ID that, although they seem on the surface to make some sense, they're very difficult for some segments of the population to obtain," Heck emphasized.

Heck added rushing to put the requirements in the state constitution is strategic, given the state Supreme Court justice ballot the measure will share. Over more than 40 years, the conservative Heritage Foundation lists only 68 cases of voter fraud in Wisconsin.

Support for this reporting was provided by The Carnegie Corporation of New York.


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As North Dakota's new legislative session takes shape, Indigenous voters in certain political districts will maintain their representation, after a decision by the nation's highest court. Advocates say the timing was critical. The case stemmed from recently created subdistricts meant to boost tribal representation on the Forth Berthold and Turtle Mountain reservations.

Local GOP officials sought to overturn the boundaries, arguing they discriminated against non-Natives, but the U.S. Supreme Court this week declined to take up those arguments.

Nicole Donaghy, executive director of North Dakota Native Vote, said it's a relief that legal issues won't be top of mind.

"That's something that is a positive going into this legislative session for us. We're able to focus on legislation, not litigation," she explained.

One of the areas in question is District 4-A, currently represented by Lisa Finley-DeVille. Donaghy said having her as part of the Native delegation in Bismarck helps in areas such as protecting natural resources. A separate case is still pending about legislative district gains for other Tribal areas in North Dakota.

Arguments in that case were heard last fall, and the Native American Rights Fund says if the state is successful in overturning those other boundaries, there could be new map considerations. Donaghy added that even though the next redistricting won't be until after the 2030 Census, these legal fights serve as a reminder for Tribes to organize and maintain progress.

"Because it only happens once every 10 years, it's not always at the forefront of everybody's minds. And so, I really see that having Native American legislators does give our communities in North Dakota - albeit we are a small portion of the population - that level of representation within these decision-making bodies," she continued.

Sections of the federal Voting Rights Act are often central in these redistricting cases. Lawyers for Tribal plaintiffs note the law was meant to shield against efforts to dilute the voting power of marginalized populations. However, as the Brennan Center for Justice points out, these protections have been eroded by other Supreme Court decisions.

Members of the Texas Legislature are back in Austin for its 89th legislative session.

After newly elected lawmakers are sworn in, members will vote on a new Speaker of the House.

Cal Jillson, professor of political science at Southern Methodist University, said it appears moderate Rep. Dustin Burrows, R-Lubbock, has enough support from both Democrats and middle of the road Republicans to beat the more conservative Rep. David Cook, R-Mansfield, but Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Attorney General Ken Paxton could try to sway the vote.

"We'll see how strongly Patrick, Abbott and Paxton weigh in behind Cook to try to get the conservative speaker that they haven't been able to get for the past decade," Jillson explained.

Republicans have the majority in both the Senate and House of Representatives. Jillson pointed out school vouchers, border patrol, the power grid and water issues are top priories for lawmakers.

After the 2023 session, Abbott convened several special sessions in an unsuccessful attempt to pass a school voucher program. Jillson expects funding for both private and public schools will be addressed over the next 140 days.

"I think they have enough revenue available to start a voucher program and then to go ahead and expand public school funding," Jillson observed. "The trick is in the details. "

He pointed out the proposed voucher program was scaled back from two years ago. Funding for public schools has not increased since 2019.

Border security is also a top priority for the Republican Party. Jillson stressed with President-elect Donald Trump in the White House, lawmakers will be able to pass more legislation without pushback from Washington.

"There may well be a state border patrol bill to put more Texas uniforms on the border," Jillson projected. "Certainly, there will be more attempts to give local law enforcement more power to arrest people they find in the country illegally."


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