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MT Prepares to Draw Regained House Seat

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Friday, August 6, 2021   

HELENA, Mont. -- With detailed census data being released this month, the work to draw Montana's new congressional district will begin in earnest soon.

The state had two seats in Congress for nearly all of the 20th century, but lost one after the 1990 census. Districts one and two roughly cut the state west and east, between the mountainous part and the plains.

Rob Saldin, professor of political science at the University of Montana, said there is no requirement to split the state between west and east, but the expectation is the new line will be similar to the one drawn three decades ago.

"One tricky thing this time around is that the population growth that we've had has been in the west, and so it's not going to be able to be exactly the same," Saldin predicted. "And I think a lot of this comes down to what are you going to keep in the west and what are you going to have to put into the east?"

Saldin pointed out one place to watch is fast-growing Gallatin County, located in the south-central part of the state. He noted where the county is placed could determine how much influence the outnumbered Democrats have in House races. The goal is to make the districts as equal as possible without dividing communities unnaturally.

In the 1970s, the Montana Constitution set up an independent body, known as the District and Apportionment Commission, to determine both congressional and state legislative districts.

Saldin explained the affiliations of commission members are split, with two Democrats, two Republicans and a chairperson chosen by the Montana Supreme Court, in order to take politics out of the process as much as possible.

"The idea here is that with the commission that's evenly balanced that you'll have kind of saner, more natural, more obvious lines that get drawn," Saldin emphasized.

One contentious idea for drawing districts is their competitiveness. Democrats have pushed for creating competitive districts, but Republicans countered the process shouldn't create specific political outcomes.

Saldin stressed the argument for competitive districts is that you get more moderate candidates.

"When you have really lopsided districts, then all the attention goes to the primary, and that emboldens primary voters rather than the population as a whole, and you tend to get more extreme candidates," Saldin observed.

In July, the District and Apportionment Commission voted it "may consider" competitiveness when drawing lines. Elections for the two U.S. House members who will represent Montana take place in 2022.

Support for this reporting was provided by The Carnegie Corporation of New York.


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