As the country reels with the highest levels of inflation seen since the 1980s, experts say without adding more workers, wage increases could drive prices - and inflation - even higher in Ohio and across the U.S.
While many future jobs will be taken by youths aging into the workforce, research suggests many positions will still go unfilled unless the Buckeye State, and the U.S. as a whole, gains more workers by 2030.
Andrew Lim is the director of research for the nonprofit American Immigration Council. Through analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics and other data, his organization found immigration policy in Canada and other countries may be the golden ticket.
"The government, in coordination with the provinces in Canada, say, 'What are the jobs that are most in demand? Where do you need these workers?'" said Lim. "And we don't have that in the U.S. We have an immigration system that largely has not been reformed for now three decades. And so it's really not as responsive as other countries have been able to become."
Of the more than 165 million jobs expected to exist in 2030, almost half will be left open by retirees, career changers, or workers who've left the labor market entirely, according to American Immigration Council findings.
Lim said Ohio mirrors much of what's going on nationally, with the added problem that some of the state's major cities have been shrinking since as far back as the 1970s.
Lim added that while COVID restrictions may be mostly a thing of the past, the pandemic's effects on the economy and worker shortage will remain into the future.
"You have this great resignation where people are really looking for better conditions, but also better wages," said Lim. "And this is putting a lot of pressure on employers because now the competition for workers is really, really tight. And there are limits to what employers are able to do without passing those elevated costs up to consumers."
Lim said unlike other parts of the country, Ohio is dealing with more than the effects of the past two years.
"Even before the pandemic," said Lim, "there was a lot of planning that was being done by chambers of commerce, city councils, by regional associations about how do you make Ohio metros attractive, not just to immigrants but to people in general. And so, a stable population at the very least is really important."
Data shows occupations that grew the most between 2019 and 2021 had a large share of immigrants, including health care, transportation, food preparation, construction, and manufacturing.
Reporting by Ohio News Connection in association with Media in the Public Interest and funded in part by the George Gund Foundation.
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Almost 600 children in Pennsylvania, many fleeing abuse or persecution, are being forced to navigate the immigration court system without legal representation, according to immigrant advocacy groups.
Recent federal funding cuts have left more than 26,000 unaccompanied minors nationwide without legal aid.
Cathryn Miller-Wilson, executive director of the Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society-Pennsylvania, said federal funding unexpectedly stopped four weeks ago, leaving attorneys without support to help migrant children in shelters in Bethlehem and northwestern Pennsylvania.
"All work, except for the 'Know Your Rights' work - which is the going out to the shelter and just educating the kids about the Know Your Rights work - that was the only work that was supposed to be maintained," Miller-Wilson explained. "No more representation of any kind could be done, or at least wouldn't be paid for by the federal government."
Miller-Wilson noted Acacia Center for Justice received a notice stating it could keep up the Know Your Rights visits for six more months but provide no legal representation. A lawsuit led to a temporary order restoring legal services until a hearing on April 16 to determine whether the temporary order will become permanent.
Miller-Wilson pointed out there are some remedies -- like Special Immigrant Juvenile Status, 'T' visas for trafficking victims, and 'U' visas for victims of certain crimes -- but it can take months or even years to secure temporary legal status. In her view, government support for such children is not only a moral obligation but also an investment in saving an entire generation.
"The funding is an investment in their future," Miller-Wilson contended. "We represent them. They get status, they get to go to school, they get jobs, they pay taxes, they have spending power and they become part of the American fabric."
She added her group helps people with incomes of less than 300% of the Federal Poverty Level with legal and social service needs. She argued targeting immigrants, of any age, does not make economic sense for the country, as there is overwhelming evidence the nation's economic strength and well-being are deeply connected to immigrants.
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By Chantal Flores for Yes! Media.
Broadcast version by Freda Ross for Texas News Service reporting for the Yes! Media-Public News Service Collaboration
If Indi Tisoy has a single dream, it is to reach the United States. Her desire is so strong, in fact, that she waits at the border because it makes her feel closer to that dream. Tisoy, who is a member of the Inga Indigenous community, left the Colombian Amazon's Putumayo department with her family when she was 12 to seek better economic opportunities in the city of Bucaramanga.
When Tisoy was 20, she began transitioning. Within five years of her transition, Bucaramanga, which was once her refuge, no longer felt safe. So in late 2024, Tisoy, who is now 25, decided to begin journeying toward the United States because she's drawn to what she calls the country's "open-minded culture."
"The last time I went [to my community] was very difficult because there was criticism, insults, threats, and I made the decision to leave Colombia," Tisoy said from a migrant shelter in northern Mexico. "I said I'm [also] not doing well in Bucaramanga, so I want to change my life."
Since taking office, U.S. President Donald Trump has taken a series of executive actions targeting migrants as well as transgender and nonbinary people. For trans migrants like Tisoy, who are already undertaking arduous journeys to the United States, asylum options have been shut down, and the hope of finding safe haven is dwindling.
In response to the changing environment, key initiatives in Mexico are focusing on developing more long-term and comprehensive support for LGBTQ migrants, who may be in Mexico for a longer time than originally intended.
A Continuous Search for Safety
The LGBTQ community experiences continuous displacement, especially if they are rejected by their communities and families and are seeking access to medical care. However, there is little data on LGBTQ refugees and asylum seekers in the U.S., which hinders a better understanding of their characteristics and experiences.
A study by the Williams Institute at UCLA School of Law found that between 2012 and 2017 an estimated 11,400 asylum applications were filed by LGBTQ individuals. Nearly 4,000 of these applicants sought asylum specifically due to fear of persecution based on their sexual orientation or gender identity.
Raúl Caporal, director of Casa Frida, which provides refuge for LGBTQ migrants in Mexico City, Tapachula, and Monterrey, Mexico, explained that the majority of the individuals they serve are fleeing violence and seeking international protection.
"The population we focus on leaves their countries because of persecution and violence motivated by sexual orientation, gender identity, and expression," Caporal says.
"[This is compounded] by organized crime taking advantage of their vulnerability, the absence of the state, and the inability to access justice institutions when they try to report crimes."
Latin America and the Caribbean report the highest number of trans murders of any region in the world. According to Transrespect Versus Transphobia Worldwide, 70% of trans murders globally occur there, with the majority of victims being Black trans women, trans women of color, and trans sex workers. In Mexico alone, according to data from Mexico's National Trans and Nonbinary Assembly (Asamblea Nacional Trans No Binarie), more than 55 trans people were killed last year, making it the second deadliest country in the world for trans people, after Brazil.
Brigitte Baltazar, a Mexican trans activist who resides in Tijuana, Mexico, after being deported from the U.S. in 2021, explains that trans asylum seekers no longer see the U.S. as a safe haven as Donald Trump signs harsh executive orders targeting trans and nonbinary people as well as immigrants. Baltazar says that these executive orders "increase the stigma and discrimination [trans migrants are] already experiencing," which "creates a state of panic."
Though Casa Frida documented that 67% of the people they served in 2024 didn't have the U.S. as their final destination, the remaining 33% intended to reach the U.S. using CBP One, a mobile app that migrants can use to apply to enter the U.S. However, that option was discontinued by the Trump administration in January.
Activists and organizations agree that strengthening access to asylum in Mexico, along with health care and job opportunities, is key to sustaining support for trans migrants.
"Mexico has a great opportunity to strengthen its local public policies on integration, particularly at the municipal and state levels," Caporal adds. "Ultimately, it is the municipalities where refugees will reside, where they will find work close to their homes, where they will generate an income, and where people can continue their studies."
Strengthening Support Systems for Trans Migrants in Mexico
The persecution and violence LGBTQ individuals face often continue during their journey. Shortly after crossing the Mexico-Guatemala border, Tisoy and a fellow group of migrants were kidnapped. She recalled being held in the backyard of a house for 12 days until her best friend in the United States could raise $1,000 to meet a ransom demand.
Caporal explained that the lack of state protection and inaccessible justice institutions increases the vulnerability of trans migrants, making them easy targets for organized crime. In its latest report, Amnesty International highlights the risks and precariousness faced by people in the U.S.-Mexico border, at the hands of both state and non-state actors. The report warns that many migrants are forced to pay bribes to Mexican authorities, criminal groups, or individuals at checkpoints.
Tisoy arrived in Matamoros, Tamaulipas-a city less than three miles away from Brownsville, Texas-days before Trump's inauguration. She planned to cross the river and request asylum, but she didn't have the $200 fee she needed to pay the cartel to cross. With deportations beginning, she now waits near the border as she doesn't want to risk being taken back to Colombia.
"In this journey, you have to be very positive because if you get depressed, you're in a city that isn't yours, in a country that isn't your own," Tisoy says. "I cried and prayed a lot, but then I realized I had to keep going. I wiped away my tears and here I am."
Waiting near the U.S.-Mexico border is increasingly dangerous. Most migrants in Matamoros remain in shelters due to threats of being kidnapped and robbed. For Tisoy, even being at the shelter can be uncomfortable due to the lack of specific support for LGBTQ individuals.
After families complained about her presence in a shelter with children, she moved to a neutral room in a nearby shelter, but her stay is uncertain with more migrants seeking an extended stay in Mexico. "I arrived normally, and no one had said anything to me," Tisoy explained. "Then one mother said I was trans and went to complain, but I didn't understand why she did it."
After the cancellation of CBP appointments, some migrants returned to Casa Frida to seek legal advice for requesting asylum in Mexico. To seek asylum in Mexico, individuals must apply within 30 days of arrival at a Commission for Refugee Aid (COMAR) office. The application requires completing a form explaining their reasons for leaving their home country, providing supporting documentation, and detailing their fear of persecution based on factors such as race, religion, nationality, political opinion, gender, or social group membership.
Casa Frida, along with other organizations, is currently working with COMAR to find alternatives to the 30-day rule for those who didn't apply for asylum because they were waiting for their CBP appointment. Caporal says that Mexico must strengthen its asylum system and provide COMAR with the resources to meet the increasing demand for guidance, incorporating both gender and sexual diversity perspectives.
"We are preparing a draft bill to reform the refugee law in the Chamber of Deputies, which seeks to include persecution based on sexual orientation and gender identity as a direct cause for obtaining and recognizing refugee status," he added.
Guaranteeing Safe and Dignified Spaces
Along with legal counseling, Baltazar said "dignified access to health care" is also a critical need. Baltazar, who also coordinates the LGBTQ program at the migrant organization Al Otro Lado, explained that Mexico's bureaucratic and often inhumane health system poses a significant challenge, particularly for trans individuals.
She regularly accompanies trans migrants to health centers to access antiretrovirals or STI medications, a challenge even for internally displaced Mexicans. The lack of documentation-common for both domestic and foreign migrants who fled without documents or lost them on their journey-further complicates their access to proper health care.
"With hormone treatments, unfortunately there is no program and there are no specialized doctors, like endocrinologists, who can care for this population," Baltazar added. "This puts their health at risk since they do not have a hormone treatment controlled by a specialist."
Tisoy has been struggling to get tested after being sexually assaulted on the train north. "I spent 15 days on the train, and I was raped. So it's important to me to get tested," she says. During a stop at Casa Frida in Mexico City, she tried to get tested, but after three days, she decided to continue her journey rather than waiting.
Before Trump's inauguration, there was a focus on helping people "while they were able to cross," but now, Baltazar says there's an urgent need for a longer-term strategy where people can access health care and other services and opportunities in Mexico.
"People cannot return to their countries or regions because their lives are in danger. The idea is to offer them workshops and integration support, giving vulnerable people tools so they can do anything in a new country," Baltazar added. "Perhaps they even discover passions they didn't have the opportunity to explore in their countries because they weren't free or didn't have access to schools, universities, or job training."
Most shelters and resources for LGBTQ asylum seekers rely on grassroots efforts by activists like Baltazar and organizations like Casa Frida, which depend on volunteer and community support. Casa Frida obtained external funding to continue growing, but nearly 60% of its 2025-2026 budget is at risk due to USAID cuts.
Though they are developing an emergency plan to continue operations, Caporal warned that wait times for services will likely increase. "Our operational capacity will likely be reduced," Caporal says. "This may result in longer wait times for those who visit our facilities daily and we will have to ensure that we continue providing the 54,000 meals we serve daily."
Caporal agrees that the focus should be on strengthening paths to settle in Mexico and pushing to implement these integration policies, particularly at the local level. Casa Frida is concentrating on these local integration opportunities, providing a safer environment where individuals can explore a wide range of life options.
"That is when they begin to make the decision that in reality it is not that they want to reach the United States," Caporal added. "In reality what they want is to reach a safe territory where they can live in freedom, autonomy, and-above all-with pride in being who they are."
Chantal Flores wrote this article for Yes! Media.
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