Recent polling from The New York Times and Siena College found President Biden trailing former President Donald Trump in five of the six most crucial battleground states, one of which is Arizona.

In the Grand Canyon state Trump leads Biden by five-percentage points.

Elaine Kamarck, director of the Center for Effective Public Management at the Brookings Institute, said the question is - if polls are showing Biden slipping, compounded with his unfavorable approval rating, does that mean voters won't vote for him and other Democrats in the upcoming election?

She said it isn't a simple answer.

"Maybe there is just no relationship between the president's popularity and down ballot voting," said Kamarck. "That voters vote on very different things and maybe because we have a 'president-centric' kind of culture, maybe we just get that wrong all the time."

While The New York Times/Siena College poll comprised just over 3,600 registered voters among all six states, Kamarck said other state-based polls - which struck fear in many Democrats - are composed only of about six hundred participants, which she says likely aren't grasping the entirety of voter's preferences and true attitudes.

Kamarck said looking at the special elections in 2021, the midterms in 2022, and the most recent set of elections this year, President Biden's unpopularity does not have much to do with democratic votes.

She contended that Democrats "over performed expectations," in all three years and increased their margins.

She argued that abortion is a huge motivator for democratic voters. Arizona is among one of several states looking at a possible proposed abortion rights measure on next year's ballot, which could boost Democrat's chances.

"Where the right to choose is front and center on the agenda, abortion is an incredibly powerful motivator," said Kamarck. "I think in my lifetime in politics which has been pretty long, it is probably the biggest push I've ever seen, really."

Arizona for Abortion Access is supported by a coalition of reproductive rights advocates who are currently working on getting the close to 400,000 signatures from Arizona voters by July of next year.

Currently, abortions are legal in Arizona up to 15 weeks with no exceptions for rape or incest. The law does have an exception to save the life of a pregnant mother.

Support for this reporting was provided by The Carnegie Corporation of New York.

Ohio Republicans will soon have stronger representation in Washington, D.C., as Buckeye State native and Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance is set to take office in January.

Across the country and here in Ohio, a majority of voters cast their ballots to elect Donald Trump as the 47th president, with Vance as his running mate.

Amy Hagan, a resident of Vance's hometown of Middletown, said she voted for him and is hopeful for what she called "a brighter future."

"I think it's really cool just to be able to get our name out there, you know, see what he's got," Hagan explained. "I just hope he stands up to his word. That's my biggest thing, is trust."

Improving the economy will be a major issue for many voters in Middletown, where the poverty rate is over 19%, more than 6.5% above the national rate. Women ages 35-44 make up the largest group of people in poverty in the city, followed by women ages 45-54.

Jo Baldwin, president of the college Democrats at Ohio State University, is among the almost 44% of Ohio voters who did not choose the Trump/Vance ticket, although she said she is still proud an Ohio State graduate is going to take office.

"I think that it's awesome that Ohio State was able to produce a vice president," Baldwin emphasized. "I think it's a great school and I'm very lucky to go here. But I do think that he is not representative of Ohio State's population."

Vance's campaign stump had its share of rocky patches, as his candor resulted in some statements infuriating women, teachers and cat lovers, to name a few. But with more than 3 million votes cast for the Trump/Vance ticket, Ohio's 17 electoral votes are officially secured for the new administration.


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A proposition on the ballot to change the way voting works in Idaho failed in last week's election.

Proposition One would have opened up primaries to create a top-four system and ranked-choice voting in general elections. The measure received 30% approval.

Al Vanderklipp - senior research associate with the Northwest-based think tank Sightline Institute - said even when people dislike the status quo for elections, they are suspicious of proposals to change the way they vote.

"The default stance of most voters is 'no' for these ballot measures," said Vanderklipp, "and so there's a really high bar to educate voters on the potential benefit of why they might want to vote 'yes,' and in this case it appears that bar was not cleared."

Many top Republicans came out in opposition to the measure.

Like many states across the country, state Republicans saw success on Election Day, adding three more seats in the state Legislature to the supermajority they already possessed.

A ranked-choice measure in Oregon also failed.

However, Vanderklipp noted that candidates could win without receiving a majority of the votes.

"Let's say the independent candidate wins 33% of the vote, and the Republican wins 33% of the vote, and the Democrat wins 34%," said Vanderklipp. "That would elect a Democrat in a state that really doesn't elect Democratic candidates - and that would not be representative, probably, of the population as a whole."

Vanderklipp noted that a ranked-choice system could solve this by counting people's second choice in elections.

But with an unpopular result for Proposition One, he said other changes could be possible in the future.

"There are more incremental reforms like top-two primaries, rather than top four," said Vanderklipp. "California and Washington use those. They're pretty popular. They're effective in electing more moderate and more representative candidates."

Support for this reporting was provided by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.




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The impact Latino voters had in this year's election has caught the public's attention.

Minnesota organizers found success in connecting with this population, and they're monitoring what a Trump administration means for their communities.

Leading up to last Tuesday's vote, Communities Organizing Latino Power and Action, or COPAL, says it carried out its largest civic engagement effort to date.

Organizing Director Ryan Perez said they exceeded outreach goals by making more than 200,000 calls and knocking on the doors of more than five thousand Latino voters.

He suggested this enthusiasm is something all candidates need to take note of for future elections.

"This is a voting bloc that is powerful, that is organized, and you have to win our community support," said Perez, "and it's not a given."

Perez acknowledged national exit polls showing the big gains President-elect Donald Trump made with Latino voters, especially younger males.

But he said Trump's dehumanizing rhetoric toward immigrants wasn't helpful in speaking to all Latinos.

He said he also feels Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign didn't do enough to engage with this voting bloc.

Perez said it's apparent that many Latino voters were drawn to Trump's message on economic matters, and that they're not worried about his deportation threats because they are citizens themselves.

But Perez warned of complicating scenarios if Trump follows through on his campaign promises.

"You know, there's a myth of a-documented-versus-an-undocumented household," said Perez, "when many of these households are mixed-status families where somebody's at risk. "

Perez said family separations have been an issue under both Republican and Democratic administrations.

But the Trump campaign has pledged to quickly get started on the largest deportation effort in U.S. history.

COPAL also tries to ensure Latino voters have a deeper understanding of the issues, and that being engaged can include talking with lawmakers and showing up for public hearings.

Perez said for those feeling despair based on the outcome, it's important to remember that voting patterns and the electorate can quickly change.

But he predicted the Latino vote will only grow stronger.

"So many folks are getting their citizenship for the first time, and becoming first-time voters at any age," said Perez, "and there's enough work being done to bring in those voices."