Recent polling from The New York Times and Siena College found President Biden trailing former President Donald Trump in five of the six most crucial battleground states, one of which is Arizona.
In the Grand Canyon state Trump leads Biden by five-percentage points.
Elaine Kamarck, director of the Center for Effective Public Management at the Brookings Institute, said the question is - if polls are showing Biden slipping, compounded with his unfavorable approval rating, does that mean voters won't vote for him and other Democrats in the upcoming election?
She said it isn't a simple answer.
"Maybe there is just no relationship between the president's popularity and down ballot voting," said Kamarck. "That voters vote on very different things and maybe because we have a 'president-centric' kind of culture, maybe we just get that wrong all the time."
While The New York Times/Siena College poll comprised just over 3,600 registered voters among all six states, Kamarck said other state-based polls - which struck fear in many Democrats - are composed only of about six hundred participants, which she says likely aren't grasping the entirety of voter's preferences and true attitudes.
Kamarck said looking at the special elections in 2021, the midterms in 2022, and the most recent set of elections this year, President Biden's unpopularity does not have much to do with democratic votes.
She contended that Democrats "over performed expectations," in all three years and increased their margins.
She argued that abortion is a huge motivator for democratic voters. Arizona is among one of several states looking at a possible proposed abortion rights measure on next year's ballot, which could boost Democrat's chances.
"Where the right to choose is front and center on the agenda, abortion is an incredibly powerful motivator," said Kamarck. "I think in my lifetime in politics which has been pretty long, it is probably the biggest push I've ever seen, really."
Arizona for Abortion Access is supported by a coalition of reproductive rights advocates who are currently working on getting the close to 400,000 signatures from Arizona voters by July of next year.
Currently, abortions are legal in Arizona up to 15 weeks with no exceptions for rape or incest. The law does have an exception to save the life of a pregnant mother.
Support for this reporting was provided by The Carnegie Corporation of New York.
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A proposition on the ballot to change the way voting works in Idaho failed in last week's election.
Proposition One would have opened up primaries to create a top-four system and ranked-choice voting in general elections. The measure received 30% approval.
Al Vanderklipp - senior research associate with the Northwest-based think tank Sightline Institute - said even when people dislike the status quo for elections, they are suspicious of proposals to change the way they vote.
"The default stance of most voters is 'no' for these ballot measures," said Vanderklipp, "and so there's a really high bar to educate voters on the potential benefit of why they might want to vote 'yes,' and in this case it appears that bar was not cleared."
Many top Republicans came out in opposition to the measure.
Like many states across the country, state Republicans saw success on Election Day, adding three more seats in the state Legislature to the supermajority they already possessed.
A ranked-choice measure in Oregon also failed.
However, Vanderlipp noted that candidates could win without receiving a majority of the votes.
"Let's say the independent candidate wins 33% of the vote, and the Republican wins 33% of the vote, and the Democrat wins 34%," said Vanderklipp. "That would elect a Democrat in a state that really doesn't elect Democratic candidates - and that would not be representative, probably, of the population as a whole."
Vanderklipp noted that a ranked-choice system could solve this by counting people's second choice in elections.
But with an unpopular result for Proposition One, he said other changes could be possible in the future.
"There are more incremental reforms like top-two primaries, rather than top four," said Vanderklipp. "California and Washington use those. They're pretty popular. They're effective in electing more moderate and more representative candidates."
Vanderklipp added that ranked-choice voting could be passed at the local level, so that voters can try it there first and become familiar with the process.
Support for this reporting was provided by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.
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The impact Latino voters had in this year's election has caught the public's attention.
Minnesota organizers found success in connecting with this population, and they're monitoring what a Trump administration means for their communities.
Leading up to last Tuesday's vote, Communities Organizing Latino Power and Action, or COPAL, says it carried out its largest civic engagement effort to date.
Organizing Director Ryan Perez said they exceeded outreach goals by making more than 200,000 calls and knocking on the doors of more than five thousand Latino voters.
He suggested this enthusiasm is something all candidates need to take note of for future elections.
"This is a voting bloc that is powerful, that is organized, and you have to win our community support," said Perez, "and it's not a given."
Perez acknowledged national exit polls showing the big gains President-elect Donald Trump made with Latino voters, especially younger males.
But he said Trump's dehumanizing rhetoric toward immigrants wasn't helpful in speaking to all Latinos.
He said he also feels Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign didn't do enough to engage with this voting bloc.
Perez said it's apparent that many Latino voters were drawn to Trump's message on economic matters, and that they're not worried about his deportation threats because they are citizens themselves.
But Perez warned of complicating scenarios if Trump follows through on his campaign promises.
"You know, there's a myth of a-documented-versus-an-undocumented household," said Perez, "when many of these households are mixed-status families where somebody's at risk. "
Perez said family separations have been an issue under both Republican and Democratic administrations.
But the Trump campaign has pledged to quickly get started on the largest deportation effort in U.S. history.
COPAL also tries to ensure Latino voters have a deeper understanding of the issues, and that being engaged can include talking with lawmakers and showing up for public hearings.
Perez said for those feeling despair based on the outcome, it's important to remember that voting patterns and the electorate can quickly change.
But he predicted the Latino vote will only grow stronger.
"So many folks are getting their citizenship for the first time, and becoming first-time voters at any age," said Perez, "and there's enough work being done to bring in those voices."
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The public's frustration with American politics is nothing new but last week's presidential election is spurring conversation about what kind of messaging voters have an appetite for.
A North Dakota expert said the outcome offers clues. Gaining support among Latino voters and backlash over inflation are cited as factors behind Donald Trump's victory.
Mark Jendrysik, professor of political science at the University of North Dakota, said Kamala Harris' campaign had a good ground game in swing states but appears to have been swept up in the anti-incumbent wave seen in elections elsewhere in the world. He also thinks Trump's simplistic phrases speak to those who feel out of touch with public institutions.
"I think part of it is a reality of society where so many things are impersonal, and so many things are done by machines now, you don't actually talk to a living human," Jendrysik observed.
He pointed out right-wing media influencers have increasingly zeroed in on those who feel "powerless," namely young male voters. The approach by Trump's orbit resonated with rural voters in 2016. Jendrysik acknowledged it feeds into narratives alleging people, especially low-propensity voters, are less interested in policy and are more persuaded by a candidate's vibes.
Trump's legal issues, including a criminal conviction, were seen as liabilities for his campaign. But Jendrysik noted because he was not part of the incumbent administration this time, Trump could narrow the focus on topics voters were concerned about. He emphasized lingering anger over government shutdowns during COVID played into the short-term memories voters sometimes have, possibly forgetting Trump was still in office during the first year of the crisis.
"He got a lot of people to pretend that his presidency ended in February of 2020," Jendrysik stressed.
He argued Trump's simple messaging, like "Make America Great Again," allows his supporters to fill in the policy blanks, rather than hear a candidate talk about them. Jendrysik added it cannot be ignored racism and misogyny factored into the outcome, given Harris' racial and ethnic identity and falling short of becoming the first female president in U.S. history.
Support for this reporting was provided by The Carnegie Corporation of New York.
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