By Kathiann Kowalski for Inside Climate News.
Broadcast version by Farah Siddiqi for Ohio News Connection reporting for the Solutions Journalism Network-Public News Service Collaboration

Lake Erie's harmful algal blooms have started sooner and had longer peak periods over the past decade compared to earlier years, newly released data shows. Warming temperatures linked to climate change are a cause, according to researchers for NOAA's National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, with interactions among species likely playing a role as well.

The NOAA scientists discussed the shift and forecast a moderate to above-moderate algal bloom for the lake's western basin this summer during a briefing last month at Ohio State University and Ohio Sea Grant's Stone Laboratory, off the coast of Put-in-Bay on Lake Erie.

Algal blooms occur when cyanobacteria, or blue-green algae, grow out of control due to a combination of excess nutrients, weather patterns and other ecological factors. The blooms can be a serious public health problem because some types of cyanobacteria produce toxins. Microcystin, for example, can lead to skin rashes, gut problems and liver and kidney issues. Relatively high levels of it in August 2014 prompted a two-day shutdown of Toledo's public water supply, which comes from Lake Erie.

"We were certainly caught off guard, and the impact was hundreds of thousands of people were without drinking water," said Sean Corson, director of the National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science. The total economic impact of the 2014 water crisis was around $65 million, he said.

Even when toxic strains aren't the problem, algal blooms can still affect Ohio's lake-focused businesses and other activities. Aside from the ugliness of neon green scum, people can't distinguish between toxic and non-toxic strains by eye. Such uncertainty discourages lake-based activities, such as beach visits and fishing. Blooms also add to costs for water treatment plants.

Out-of-control cyanobacteria don't provide good eating for the rest of the lake's food web, either. And they contribute to so-called dead zones, areas with very low levels of dissolved oxygen that can't support aquatic life.

For more than a decade, NOAA has worked with partners in the state, including the Ohio Sea Grant Program, the National Center for Water Quality Research at Heidelberg University, the Ohio State University and the University of Toledo, to forecast the severity of the blooms in Lake Erie's western basin. It's the shallowest part of the lake, with abundant fish. Water is likely to warm faster and blooms flourish there more readily than elsewhere in the lake. Water in Lake Erie generally moves from west to east.

Last year's bloom was significantly larger than the smaller-than-average event researchers had predicted. So the forecast team took a closer look at the data.

From 2012 through 2023, Lake Erie's algal blooms have generally started in July, compared to the previous decade when blooms usually kicked in during August, said NOAA oceanographer Rick Stumpf, who plays a leading role in the forecasting program. The lake's algal blooms during the past decade also have had longer peak periods, resembling plateaus instead of short spikes.

"Blooms are starting earlier. They're lasting longer. Their peaks are larger. So, by some measures, they're getting worse," Corson said.

"Temperature is the overall driver," Stumpf said, noting ongoing trends of warmer summers and less ice cover in winters. But it's not a simple matter of warmer water producing the changes. The team's current hypothesis is that the shift to earlier algae blooms with longer peak periods reflects both climate change and ecological interactions.

Diatoms are a type of single-cell algae found in Lake Erie, which play an important part in its food webs. They generally outcompete cyanobacteria for nutrients early in the season, when water is cooler, Stumpf explained. The diatoms provide good eating for tiny lake organisms called zooplankton. Changing conditions in the lake could be increasing the degree to which the zooplankton multiply and feast on the diatoms, perhaps suppressing their populations sooner than in earlier years. By the time that happens, cyanobacteria, which prefer warmer water anyway, may have a clearer path to use extra nutrients in the water and grow out of control.

Research is ongoing to better understand what's been happening, Stumpf said. It could help fine-tune future forecasts. But climate change is definitely a factor in the mix.

"We know that climate is changing. We know that this is happening in states here in the Great Lakes region," Corson said. Changes in Ohio include a trend toward warmer average temperatures and more intense rainfall that usually increases stormwater runoff.

When soil can't absorb that runoff, it carries nutrients from fertilizers into waterways, along with other pollution. Fertilizer runoff from farms is a major source of both phosphorus and nitrogen, although some amounts also come from places like golf courses and suburban subdivisions.

Researchers are seeing shifts in algal bloom patterns elsewhere in the United States. But "changes are really specific to the individual area where you are," Corson said. Many coastal areas are experiencing warming trends and changes in precipitation patterns, along with shifts in land use that increase the amount of impervious surfaces. "Those are all occurring, and the shapes of the blooms are changing as well," he said.

The Outlook This Summer

The severity of Lake Erie's algal blooms varies from year to year. Factors include the levels of nutrient loading from the Maumee River basin, which covers a large part of northwestern Ohio, along with smaller areas in Indiana and Michigan.

The basin accounts for nearly half of the total phosphorus going into Lake Erie's western basin each year, according to Laura Johnson, who heads the National Center for Water Quality Research. She and others are especially interested in the amount of bioavailable phosphorus reaching the lake's western basin each year. Bioavailable means the phosphorus is in a form algae can use.

Estimates for that loading each spring come from flow data and chemical analyses of samples pulled at stream monitoring equipment in Waterville, which accounts for roughly 96 percent of the watershed. More than 60 percent of the area's total bioavailable phosphorus loading from March 1 through June 23 happened in April, Johnson said.

That month was the wettest on record for the region, and more rainfall generally means more fertilizer runoff. However, it was also a mild winter. Relatively dry soils could absorb a fair amount of the runoff, which prevented "crazy flash floods," Johnson said. Some phosphorus remains in the lake from prior years' discharges.

Stumpf and his team fed information from Johnson's group and other data into three models to estimate how severe this year's algal bloom will be on a scale from 1 to 10. "Three models give you a better chance of bracketing the right result," Stumpf explained.

This year's work also reflects a tweak to account for the changing pattern of earlier starts and longer peaks for Lake Erie's algal blooms. "Now we're training those models on data from 2013 to 2023," Stumpf said. The more current data should improve the models' results.

For this year, NOAA predicted a Level 5 bloom, with a range of 4.5 to 6. Fortunately, Corson said, technology continues to improve ongoing monitoring of algal blooms. Water treatment plants' technology has improved as well, he noted.

"The bloom isn't all over the lake all the time," Stumpf stressed. Wind patterns and other factors determine which areas are affected at any particular time. Checking NOAA's updated forecasts can help for planning recreational activities.

"That's going to show you where the bloom is going," said Chris Winslow, director of Ohio Sea Grant and Ohio State University's Stone Laboratory. The Ohio Department of Health's BeachGuard webpage also reports sampling results for cyanobacteria toxins and E. coli bacteria.

Researchers also advise common sense. If the water appears green and scummy, "keep yourself, your kids and your pets out of the water," Stumpf said. Not all algal blooms have high levels of the toxin-producing strains, but it's not worth taking chances.


Kathiann Kowalski wrote this article for Inside Climate News.


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On Election Day, a broad coalition of conservationists, labor, and others helped defeat a ballot initiative to repeal Washington State's Climate Commitment Act. The act, passed in 2021, is the state's state's primary vehicle for reducing emissions and pollution and a major source of funding for clean energy infrastructure and climate initiatives.

Billy Wallace, political and legislative director with the Washington and Northern Idaho District Council of Laborers, said passage would have meant the loss of as many as 45,000 clean-energy jobs.

"We started building a coalition, and it ended up being a little over 600 groups, from labor, from environmental. The Catholic Church was on it, We had 21 of the 29 tribes sign on. So it was a very diversified coalition that came together to save this funding." he said.

Initiative 2117 was one of four ballot measures backed by the Let's Go Washington PAC funded primarily by conservative hedge-fund manager Bryan Heywood. Wallace said that over the next 8 years, Climate Commitment Act investments would create 45,000 jobs in Washington State.

Wallace added the coalition faced an uphill battle to help the public understand that jobs and the environment were both on the line.

"These are the investments, even in schools, clean air, clean water. And once we figured out we got to educate the people on what's going on, it was complicated. It was confusing for the general public. So we raised $18.4 million for this campaign from that big coalition," he continued.

Climate Jobs Washington and its member unions formed a coalition to protect the act. Wallace said labor organizations were instrumental in passing the original measure three years ago.

"It was crucial for our members. Our members work in the building trades. About 75%, 80% of the work we do is on prevailing wage work in transpo[rt]. So it was a no-brainer for us to jump in," he added.

New research finds Maryland leading the nation in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Environmental Protection Agency data show between 2005 and 2022, greenhouse gas pollution fell in 44 states and the District of Columbia. Maryland saw the largest reduction at 36%, followed by D.C., Maine, New Hampshire and Georgia. Only six states saw emissions increase.

Emily Scarr, senior advisor for the Maryland Public Interest Research Group, said the wide variation between states shows local policy matters.

"It's really evidence that states and regions have a lot of control on their greenhouse gas emissions," Scarr explained. "Showing ways that we can continue to reduce emissions, as well as showing warning signs of things that states do that can actually take us in the wrong direction."

The reductions nationwide are largely attributed to the retirement of many coal-fired power plants. Maryland has shuttered seven coal plants since 2012, with two still operating.

The report looks at emissions data from power generation, industry, transportation, agriculture, residential and commercial sectors. Maryland saw emissions reductions in every category except for the commercial sector, which includes commercial buildings, landfills and wastewater treatment centers. Scarr pointed out fossil-fuel-based winter heating is driving emissions in the commercial sector.

"The majority of those emissions are actually coming from heat for commercial buildings," Scarr observed. "That's a specific place where, if properly implemented, the Building Energy Performance Standards can start holding commercial building owners accountable."

The Maryland Department of the Environment will collect energy-use data from buildings larger than 35,000 square feet in 2025, to develop energy performance standards based on those numbers. The state has set a 2040 target for large buildings to have net-zero emissions.


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Community members in Seattle had a unique opportunity to weigh in on the policies guiding the city's climate goals.

In 2019, the City of Seattle passed the Green New Deal Resolution and Green New Deal Executive Order, with the goal of eliminating climate pollution by 2030.

To help guide that process, the initiative's oversight board supported community assemblies.

Peter Hasegawa is the organizing director at MLK Labor and co-chair of the Green New Deal Oversight Board.

He said the idea behind the community assemblies was to do deep listening with many different community members.

"To have the opportunity to present information and get feedback," said Hasegawa, "and have people think about solutions together over a longer period of time, was appealing to us because we thought we could get higher quality feedback."

MLK Labor and Urban League of Metropolitan Seattle hosted the assemblies.

The goal was to ensure that people on the front-lines had their voices heard, and were at the table as the city crafts policies going forward.

Faduma Fido is lab leader with the People's Economy Lab, which helped support the community assemblies.

She said they're piloting this type of engage at the city level because people are tired of going to listening sessions.

She said the assemblies provide a more empowering setting, with people compensated for their time and eating meals together. Fido said they want to bring democratic practices like these back.

"There's an appetite and willingness now to empower the citizens," said Fido, "empower communities to practice democracy beyond the ballot box, because often that tends to be very polarizing."

Hasegawa said they heard from a variety of people over the three sessions.

In the first, they heard about people's experiences being affected by extreme weather, such as the 2021 heat dome, and a freeze last winter that caused many people's pipes to burst.

In the second session, they heard about wins on the ground to protect people and workers from the effects of climate change.

Hasegawa said in the third, they brainstormed about what the city and local labor movement can do about climate change.

"In certain ways that ended up being the easiest session," said Hasegawa, "because there was a very high level of consensus that what workers in Seattle want is to be protected from extreme weather, they want to be protected from heat and smoke, and bursting pipes, and they want to be protected whether they work in a building or outside or in a home."




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