From government planners to farmers to residents, those wondering how climate change will affect Minnesota in the decades to come can now get the information at their fingertips. Officials behind a new tool say it can help with certain types of planning.

The University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership recently launched the interactive digital tool called MN CliMAT. Users can map out predictions, such as how much snow cover would be lost during the winter by 2060, based on scenarios involving greenhouse gas emissions.

Nate Meyer, acting interim director of the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership, said they want to help the public make informed decisions when looking ahead.

"If someone is wondering when they might want to replace their roof with something like a fortified roofing system, one way that they can gather information to answer that question is to use these climate projections," Meyer explained.

The user can see how the immediate area surrounding a structure would become more susceptible to heavy rain events. Another example is the agricultural industry getting a sense of future soil health, helping farmers plan for strategies to make their land more climate resilient.

Meyer pointed out the service, which is free, can also be a great resource for those tasked with protecting towns and cities from the worst effects of climate change.

"We are working with a number of regulatory agencies and policymakers right now on strategies to help them select data that are most useful for their purposes," Meyer noted. "Then fold those data into the models that they need to use for those planning purposes."

In a state known for its outdoor recreation, project leaders said the data can benefit Minnesota's tourism industry if stakeholders know about things like future swings in lake temperatures. Since its launch, Meyer said the tool has garnered more than 50,000 views.


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Conservation groups across New England are seeking permanent protections for the Cashes Ledge Area in the Gulf of Maine.

Often called the 'Yellowstone of the North Atlantic,' it contains rare ecological structures, a treasure trove of marine life and one of the deepest cold water kelp forests along the Eastern Seaboard.

Priscilla Brooks, vice president of ocean conservation for the Conservation Law Foundation, said giving the area sanctuary status would allow for needed scientific research in one of the fastest warming bodies of water on the planet.

"Protecting Cashes Ledge is one of the most comprehensive opportunities for biodiversity and climate stewardship in the Gulf of Maine," Brooks contended.

Hundreds of scientists and ocean advocacy groups have officially requested permanent protections from the Biden administration, the first step in what is expected to be a yearslong process.

Most commercial fishing, including bottom trawlers, is already restricted in the Cashes Ledge Area to help restore depleted groundfish populations, like cod and haddock. But conservation groups said regulatory uncertainty and a change in the White House could undo protections already in place.

Brooks pointed out the economic health of Maine's coastal communities relies on a healthy ocean ecosystem, adaptable to the growing stress of climate change.

"More diverse ecological communities and healthy communities can provide an insurance policy that ecosystem functionings will be maintained even if some species decline," Brooks noted.

Brooks emphasized multiple industries, including fishing, aquaculture and tourism have a stake in preserving Cashes Ledge. She added a newly designated sanctuary would also contribute to President Biden's goal of conserving 30% of America's lands and waters by 2030 to slow biodiversity loss and build climate resilience.

Environmental groups are concerned part of the proposed Project 2025 calls for closing several federal agencies political conservatives consider too powerful or superfluous.

There is a particular concern among Nevadans science-based agencies, particularly those battling climate change, would be eliminated or their functions privatized.

David Kieve, president of Environmental Defense Fund Action, said agencies such as the National Weather Service would be privately operated to make a profit instead of providing a vital public service.

"The idea that you would privatize the National Weather Service doesn't just mean that the quality of the forecast would decline," Kieve pointed out. "It also, critically, means you might not get life-or-death warnings to seek shelter at a time when you really need it."

The Heritage Foundation's Project 2025 is a 900-page plan likely to be adopted if Republicans win control of the government. It would completely restructure operations to align with right-wing conservative values and replace thousands of civil servants with trained party loyalists.

Kieve emphasized Nevada has a great deal to lose if agencies such as the Environmental Protection Agency and the National Weather Service are privatized. He added climate change has brought more extreme weather events, year-round wildfires and a sharp increase in the number of days with extreme heat, saying once they are lost, public services agencies could take decades to replace.

"Replacing career civil servants with political appointees will significantly undermine the public good done by agencies like the National Weather Service have worked in the public interest for a very, very long time," Kieve contended.

Kieve added while the Biden-Harris administration has focused on reducing pollution, developing clean energy and fighting climate change, Project 2025 promotes the goals of groups such as the oil industry and pharmaceutical makers pushing to eliminate all regulations.

"There is a cynicism within Project 2025 toward the value of government service that is deeply, deeply disturbing," Kieve argued. "That will not benefit the American people in any way, shape or form."

By Kathiann Kowalski for Inside Climate News.
Broadcast version by Farah Siddiqi for Ohio News Connection reporting for the Solutions Journalism Network-Public News Service Collaboration

Lake Erie's harmful algal blooms have started sooner and had longer peak periods over the past decade compared to earlier years, newly released data shows. Warming temperatures linked to climate change are a cause, according to researchers for NOAA's National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, with interactions among species likely playing a role as well.

The NOAA scientists discussed the shift and forecast a moderate to above-moderate algal bloom for the lake's western basin this summer during a briefing last month at Ohio State University and Ohio Sea Grant's Stone Laboratory, off the coast of Put-in-Bay on Lake Erie.

Algal blooms occur when cyanobacteria, or blue-green algae, grow out of control due to a combination of excess nutrients, weather patterns and other ecological factors. The blooms can be a serious public health problem because some types of cyanobacteria produce toxins. Microcystin, for example, can lead to skin rashes, gut problems and liver and kidney issues. Relatively high levels of it in August 2014 prompted a two-day shutdown of Toledo's public water supply, which comes from Lake Erie.

"We were certainly caught off guard, and the impact was hundreds of thousands of people were without drinking water," said Sean Corson, director of the National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science. The total economic impact of the 2014 water crisis was around $65 million, he said.

Even when toxic strains aren't the problem, algal blooms can still affect Ohio's lake-focused businesses and other activities. Aside from the ugliness of neon green scum, people can't distinguish between toxic and non-toxic strains by eye. Such uncertainty discourages lake-based activities, such as beach visits and fishing. Blooms also add to costs for water treatment plants.

Out-of-control cyanobacteria don't provide good eating for the rest of the lake's food web, either. And they contribute to so-called dead zones, areas with very low levels of dissolved oxygen that can't support aquatic life.

For more than a decade, NOAA has worked with partners in the state, including the Ohio Sea Grant Program, the National Center for Water Quality Research at Heidelberg University, the Ohio State University and the University of Toledo, to forecast the severity of the blooms in Lake Erie's western basin. It's the shallowest part of the lake, with abundant fish. Water is likely to warm faster and blooms flourish there more readily than elsewhere in the lake. Water in Lake Erie generally moves from west to east.

Last year's bloom was significantly larger than the smaller-than-average event researchers had predicted. So the forecast team took a closer look at the data.

From 2012 through 2023, Lake Erie's algal blooms have generally started in July, compared to the previous decade when blooms usually kicked in during August, said NOAA oceanographer Rick Stumpf, who plays a leading role in the forecasting program. The lake's algal blooms during the past decade also have had longer peak periods, resembling plateaus instead of short spikes.

"Blooms are starting earlier. They're lasting longer. Their peaks are larger. So, by some measures, they're getting worse," Corson said.

"Temperature is the overall driver," Stumpf said, noting ongoing trends of warmer summers and less ice cover in winters. But it's not a simple matter of warmer water producing the changes. The team's current hypothesis is that the shift to earlier algae blooms with longer peak periods reflects both climate change and ecological interactions.

Diatoms are a type of single-cell algae found in Lake Erie, which play an important part in its food webs. They generally outcompete cyanobacteria for nutrients early in the season, when water is cooler, Stumpf explained. The diatoms provide good eating for tiny lake organisms called zooplankton. Changing conditions in the lake could be increasing the degree to which the zooplankton multiply and feast on the diatoms, perhaps suppressing their populations sooner than in earlier years. By the time that happens, cyanobacteria, which prefer warmer water anyway, may have a clearer path to use extra nutrients in the water and grow out of control.

Research is ongoing to better understand what's been happening, Stumpf said. It could help fine-tune future forecasts. But climate change is definitely a factor in the mix.

"We know that climate is changing. We know that this is happening in states here in the Great Lakes region," Corson said. Changes in Ohio include a trend toward warmer average temperatures and more intense rainfall that usually increases stormwater runoff.

When soil can't absorb that runoff, it carries nutrients from fertilizers into waterways, along with other pollution. Fertilizer runoff from farms is a major source of both phosphorus and nitrogen, although some amounts also come from places like golf courses and suburban subdivisions.

Researchers are seeing shifts in algal bloom patterns elsewhere in the United States. But "changes are really specific to the individual area where you are," Corson said. Many coastal areas are experiencing warming trends and changes in precipitation patterns, along with shifts in land use that increase the amount of impervious surfaces. "Those are all occurring, and the shapes of the blooms are changing as well," he said.

The Outlook This Summer

The severity of Lake Erie's algal blooms varies from year to year. Factors include the levels of nutrient loading from the Maumee River basin, which covers a large part of northwestern Ohio, along with smaller areas in Indiana and Michigan.

The basin accounts for nearly half of the total phosphorus going into Lake Erie's western basin each year, according to Laura Johnson, who heads the National Center for Water Quality Research. She and others are especially interested in the amount of bioavailable phosphorus reaching the lake's western basin each year. Bioavailable means the phosphorus is in a form algae can use.

Estimates for that loading each spring come from flow data and chemical analyses of samples pulled at stream monitoring equipment in Waterville, which accounts for roughly 96 percent of the watershed. More than 60 percent of the area's total bioavailable phosphorus loading from March 1 through June 23 happened in April, Johnson said.

That month was the wettest on record for the region, and more rainfall generally means more fertilizer runoff. However, it was also a mild winter. Relatively dry soils could absorb a fair amount of the runoff, which prevented "crazy flash floods," Johnson said. Some phosphorus remains in the lake from prior years' discharges.

Stumpf and his team fed information from Johnson's group and other data into three models to estimate how severe this year's algal bloom will be on a scale from 1 to 10. "Three models give you a better chance of bracketing the right result," Stumpf explained.

This year's work also reflects a tweak to account for the changing pattern of earlier starts and longer peaks for Lake Erie's algal blooms. "Now we're training those models on data from 2013 to 2023," Stumpf said. The more current data should improve the models' results.

For this year, NOAA predicted a Level 5 bloom, with a range of 4.5 to 6. Fortunately, Corson said, technology continues to improve ongoing monitoring of algal blooms. Water treatment plants' technology has improved as well, he noted.

"The bloom isn't all over the lake all the time," Stumpf stressed. Wind patterns and other factors determine which areas are affected at any particular time. Checking NOAA's updated forecasts can help for planning recreational activities.

"That's going to show you where the bloom is going," said Chris Winslow, director of Ohio Sea Grant and Ohio State University's Stone Laboratory. The Ohio Department of Health's BeachGuard webpage also reports sampling results for cyanobacteria toxins and E. coli bacteria.

Researchers also advise common sense. If the water appears green and scummy, "keep yourself, your kids and your pets out of the water," Stumpf said. Not all algal blooms have high levels of the toxin-producing strains, but it's not worth taking chances.


Kathiann Kowalski wrote this article for Inside Climate News.


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