By Kari Lydersen for Energy News Network.
Broadcast version by Terri Dee for Illinois News Connection reporting for the Solutions Journalism Network-Public News Service Collaboration
An ongoing billing snafu in ComEd territory in northern Illinois has some solar companies bracing for turbulence.
When the problem is remedied, community solar subscribers will see a backlog of credits on their utility bills, but also accumulated charges for participating in the project. It’s the kind of surprise that can sour customers on community solar and cause them to unsubscribe from a project.
A new tool being marketed to community solar developers promises to use artificial intelligence to help intervene before such customers drop out.
Subscriber turnover is known as “churn,” and it can be a major headache for owners and managers of community solar projects. Frustration with billing is among the main reasons people withdraw from projects. Others might leave if they are moving, or if a project takes longer than expected to come online.
Churn is “a huge issue in the community solar space,” said Sam Van Dam, director of asset management for the solar developer 38 Degrees North. “It’s something we spend a lot of time thinking about.”
The stakes include lost revenue and added uncertainty. In areas where community solar is already popular, it can be challenging to find customers still looking for subscriptions. In places where it hasn’t been widely embraced yet, it can mean hours of additional work educating potential subscribers before convincing them to sign up.
Solstice, a solar company that works with developers to enlist and serve community solar subscribers, is hopeful that artificial intelligence can help companies identify and intervene with customers at risk for churn, and also make community solar more accessible and inclusive in the process.
Solstice has developed an AI tool — now in testing — that predicts when certain subscribers may be vulnerable to churn, based on data from 15,000 accounts that the AI machine learning model has been trained on. The insight allows Solstice to proactively reach out to subscribers who may be distressed, making sure they are comfortable with their subscription and allaying concerns or confusion.
If a subscriber is likely to leave, advance warning also helps Solstice more efficiently manage a waitlist of aspiring subscribers, getting them more quickly enrolled.
Promising numbers
Solstice spokesperson Mary Jackson said the AI tool was especially useful when 38 Degrees North transferred management of several thousand subscribers from another company to Solstice, a transitional period when customers might have dropped away.
“Using our churn intervention strategies and high-touch customer service, we kept a staggeringly high number of those subscribers onboard” — 96% of them, Jackson said.
Van Dam called the AI tool “a fantastic idea.”
“It becomes particularly challenging when you have hundreds of residential customers on a single project,” he said. “There’s a lot to getting everyone signed up and making sure they keep paying their bills if they are replaced. When they have to be replaced, that potentially costs money and potentially results in lost revenue. Avoiding that is the preferred approach.”
During a pilot program, Solstice saw churn reduced from 48% to 8.3% among a targeted segment of at-risk customers who had a greater than 89% chance of churn, according to their predictions, the company said. A customer’s length of time as a subscriber, and whether a project has consolidated utility billing, are among important predictors of churn.
Solstice data engineer Jake Ford explained that the machine learning tools analyze the training set of data using “advanced algorithms, including deep learning neural networks to detect patterns between variables, gradient boosting classification algorithms and other tree based models, along with other traditional regression techniques.”
“All of these models are designed to learn patterns and relationships from large datasets,” he continued. “This dynamic nature of machine learning is what differentiates these approaches from traditional computer modeling, in particular static algorithms that were often hard-coded, meaning little to no flexibility to adapt to new inputs and data. This is critical, as often the inputs or customers we wish to analyze in our machine learning applications are different – locationally, demographically, behaviorally – than those we trained the models with.”
Redefining risk
Solstice is also hopeful that AI can provide a more accurate and fair way of vetting potential solar subscribers. Typically credit scores are used to decide whether someone is likely to pay their bills, but that means people with poor credit from past financial struggles, or lower-income people in general, may be left out.
Ford said their AI-based model known as EnergyScore appears to show that customers who might otherwise be sidelined by a poor credit score are actually good fits for community solar, since data shows people are likely to pay their energy bills, even when finances are tight. This might help the households who most need energy savings access community solar.
“When we’re talking about low-income participation in community solar projects from the perspective of a developer or financier, their concern comes down to risk — revenue risk, churn risk,” said Ford. “The perception is: risk is too high, so let’s not include any low-income customers. Our data is showing the perception of risk is greater than the real risk. There haven’t been that many efforts in the energy industry to measure what the real risk is.”
Solstice developed EnergyScore “in partnership with The Department of Energy and data scientists at MIT and Stanford using more than 800,000 individuals’ data across 5,000 variables,” the company says. Testing of the patent-pending product has shown that it is more accurate than FICO scores in predicting default rates on solar payments.
While Solstice is using AI tools to combat marginalization, Ford said they are vigilant regarding the well-known risks of discrimination, racism and other unintended consequences being generated by AI.
“It’s about being aware and continually reviewing what your model is doing, being cognizant of how it’s impacting real individuals on the ground, not just rows on a spreadsheet,” he said. “It’s important to be nimble and flexible in your methodology.”
Increasing equity
Solstice CEO Steph Speirs said AI tools could be especially useful as community solar blossoms in popularity and companies strive to manage larger subscriber bases in an equitable way.
“We’re at an incredible inflection point in the energy transition,” she said. “There’s been focus on the supply side, but there’s a lot more technology that could be applied to the demand side to improve both the customer experience and the perception of projects in the community. We wanted to apply machine learning lessons around customer behavior and start to improve the metrics that developers care most about for community solar projects.”
Metrics around churn, subscription levels and collection rates affect a solar developer’s ability to get financing for community solar projects.
“If those metrics get diminished, the project’s viability is threatened,” said Speirs, who co-founded the company in 2016 with the goal of increasing low-income participation in community solar. “We need to really make sure these projects have low churn rates, and high subscription rates and collection rates.”
Speirs said that currently, only about 10% of community solar subscribers are low-income. While that is changing thanks in part to equity incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act and state solar programs, “we have work to do as an industry.”
“The beauty of these machine learning and AI models is we can use data to rewrite the historical exclusion that has existed in this industry, and improve financial viability of these projects so we can build more of them faster,” Speirs continued. “That helps both sides of the marketplace. It helps developers and financiers building projects at a cost of millions and billions of dollars, and it helps low-income customers access these projects.”
Solstice isn’t the only company in the space. Erik Molinaro, senior vice president of customer experience & operations for solar developer Nexamp, said developers and brokers across the board are using advanced technology and artificial intelligence to facilitate community solar recruitment and retention. The company uses AI to create personalized videos that walk customers through the line items on their bills, he noted.
“Any time you have something a little out of the ordinary, it triggers a customer, it’s a pain point,” Molinaro said. “We’re looking at that data, leveraging things like ChatGPT to understand why our customer is calling us, things we can do to create a better environment.”
Kari Lydersen wrote this article for Energy News Network.
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New nuclear power options are getting a lot of attention but analysts said the unproven options could distract from readily available renewable energy options.
Big Tech companies with growing energy demands from technology, like artificial intelligence, have recently announced support for new nuclear efforts, including Amazon's support for a plan in Washington state. The plans involve technology called small modular reactors, which are smaller than typical nuclear reactors.
Dennis Wamsted, energy analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, said the technology likely would not come online until 2030 or later in the U.S.
"It's a great marketing tool. There's no actual there, there yet," Wamsted asserted. "There are no operating small modular reactors in the United States or in Europe. There's one or two in Russia and one in China."
Wamsted recently analyzed what he called the hype surrounding small modular reactors. He noted the projects may be distant energy solutions and distract from solar, wind and geothermal plants, which are already proven to work.
Wamsted acknowledged tech companies should be applauded for their clean energy goals, which are among the most aggressive of any industry. But when it comes to small modular reactors, there are a lot of hurdles to starting up, including regulatory barriers.
"The safety license is given to you by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, which has a process," Wamsted explained. "It is a relatively time-consuming process. It may be more time-consuming for companies like X Energy because their reactors have never been licensed before."
Wamsted added while we could wait a decade for small modular reactors to produce energy for the first time, there are solar projects, for instance, that have gone from announcement to commercial operation in two years.
"Focus on the availability now of renewables and continue to fund the SMRs," Wamsted urged. "But be up-front about the fact that they're not a solution for the rapid demand growth that we're going through in the United States right now."
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By Kari Lydersen for Energy News Network.
Broadcast version by Terri Dee for Illinois News Connection reporting for the Solutions Journalism Network-Public News Service Collaboration
Darryl Moton is ready to "get on a roof."
The 25-year-old Chicago resident is among the latest graduates of an intensive 13-week solar training course that's helping to connect employers with job candidates from underrepresented backgrounds.
Moton was referred by another job readiness program meant to keep youth away from gun violence. He "never knew about solar" before but now sees himself owning a solar company and using the proceeds to fund his music and clothing design endeavors.
He and others interviewed for jobs with a dozen employers assembled at a church on Chicago's West Side on August 1 as part of the fourth training cohort for the 548 Foundation, which is partnering with Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker on a recently-announced $30 million initiative to create 1,000 solar jobs in Chicago's South and West side neighborhoods.
The 548 Foundation is part of 548 Enterprise, a suite of renewable energy and affordable housing development projects, launched in 2019 and named after the public housing unit where co-founder A.J. Patton grew up.
The idea is to help keep housing affordable by using solar to lower energy bills, while training people left out of the traditional energy economy to supply that solar.
"When you invest in a community, the biggest question is who benefits, who gets the jobs?" asked Patton, during the job fair. "This is as good as it gets," he added, about the recent state investment. "We just have to keep advocating for quality policy."
Employers at the job fair said such training programs are crucial for them to find workers in Illinois, where robust solar incentives are attracting many out-of-state companies eager to hire and hit the ground. Mike Huneke, energy operations manager for Minnesota-based Knobelsdorff said he has hired 18 employees from previous 548 cohorts, and he expected to make about six job offers after the recent interviews.
"Illinois is on fire," said Huneke. "We're not from Illinois, so finding this new talent pipeline is what we need. We have a ton of projects coming up."
Lisa Cotton, 30, has dreamed of being an electrician since she was a kid. She had received two job offers at the August 1 fair before the group even broke for lunch.
"A lot of times you go through a training program, get a certificate, and that's the end of it," said Jacqueline Williams of the Restoring Sovereignty Project, a partner which administers the wraparound services for the training program.
The 548 program makes sure to connect graduates with employers, and only companies with specific openings to fill are invited to the job fair. 548 and its partners also stay in contact with graduates and employers to make sure the placement is successful.
"We have a post-grad program where they can call us any time, and an alumni fund. If an employer says, 'This guy can't come to work because his radiator is busted,' we'll take care of that," said Williams.
Achieving equity
After Illinois passed an ambitious clean energy law in 2017, multiple solar training programs were launched in keeping with the law's equity provisions. But employers and advocates were frustrated by a seeming disconnect in which many trainees never got solar jobs, and employers weren't sure how to find the workers.
Since then, the state has passed another clean energy law - the 2021 Climate & Equitable Jobs Act, with even more ambitious equity mandates; and non-profit organizations have developed and honed more advanced workforce training programs. To access incentives under the law, employers need to hire a percent of equity-eligible applicants that rises to 30% by 2030. The program prioritizes people impacted by the criminal justice system, alumni of the foster care system, and people who live in equity-designated communities.
548 affiliates help employers navigate the paperwork and requirements involved in the equity incentives. Several employers at the job fair said this is a plus, but noted that regardless of equity, they are desperate for the type of highly-trained, enthusiastic candidates coming out of the 548 program.
"This is a great way to bridge what the state is trying to do with its clean energy goals, and connecting under-represented people with these opportunities," said Annette Poulimenos, talent acquisition manager of Terrasmart, a major utility-scale solar provider. "We came here ready to hire, and I think we're going to walk away with some new talent."
Member organizations of the Chicago Coalition for Intercommunalism do outreach to recruit most of the training program participants.
Nicholas Brock found out about the training thanks to a staffer at one of these organizations who noticed his professional attitude and punctuality as he walked by every morning to a different workforce program.
"Whatever I do, nine times out of 10, I'm the first one to get there, before the managers," said Brock, 20. "He noticed that and asked me, 'Have you ever heard about solar panels?'"
Brock knew little about solar at that point, but now he aims to be a solar project manager.
"I'm so glad I came here," he said. "They bring out the best in you."
Full service
Wraparound, holistic services are key to the program's success. During the training and for a year afterwards, trainees and alumni can apply for financial help or other types of assistance.
"There are so many barriers, it might be child care or your car is impounded," said Williams. "We might be writing a letter to a judge asking to 'please take him off house arrest so he can work.' It's intensive case management, navigating the bureaucratic anomalies that arise when you're system-impacted."
Moises Vega III, 26 - who always wanted to work in renewables because "it's literally the future" - noted that his car battery died during the training program, and he was provided funds to get his vehicle working again.
While ample support is available, the program itself is rigorous and demanding. Classes meet from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. each day, and trainees are required to check their phones at the door and be fully focused, notes instructor and 548 workforce strategies director Michael Thomas. During the hands-on boot camp week, the day starts at 6 a.m.
"That's when the trades start," noted Thomas. "You need to figure out how that works, how will you get child care at 5:30 a.m.?"
Sixty-one trainees started in the first three cohorts, and 46 graduated, the first group in July 2023. The fourth cohort started with 25, and as of the job fair, 18 were on track to graduate. Eighty-five percent of graduates from the first three cohorts are currently working in the field, according to 548.
"Even though I wish the graduation rate were higher, the people who commit to it, stay with it," said Kynnée Golder, CEO of Global HR Business Solutions, which has an oversight role for the 548 Foundation. "It's monumental, it's life-changing for a lot of people."
Comprehensive curriculum
The curriculum starts with life skills, including interpersonal relationships, resume-building, financial planning and more. Each day begins with a spiritual reflection.
The students learn about electricity and energy, and soon move into specific instruction on solar installation and operation. Rooms at St. Agatha's church served as labs, where students connected wires, built converters and eventually mounted solar panels on a demonstration pitched, shingled roof.
Terrance Hanson, 40, credited Thomas as "the best instructor ever."
"I'm not a young kid, my brain is no longer a sponge," Hanson said. "He made sure I got it all. Now I feel like I know so much, I'm confident and prepared to get out and show what I can do."
He added that people in disinvested neighborhoods have ample untapped potential to be part of the clean energy workforce.
"You see a lot of basketball players in my community because there are a lot of basketball hoops," he said. "If there were golf courses in the hood, you would see more golfers. It's about opportunities. And this was the most amazing and empowering thing I've ever been through."
Jack Ailey co-founded Ailey Solar in 2012, making it the oldest still-operating residential installer in Illinois, by his calculations. He noted that there can be high turnover among installers, and intensive training and preparation is key.
"You're out there in the sun, the cold, it's heavy physical labor, wrestling 40-pound panels up to the roof," he said. "You have to know what you're getting into."
"Some training programs vary in quality," Ailey added, but he was impressed by the candidates at the 548 job fair.
Trainees test for and receive multiple certifications, including the OSHA 30 for quality assurance, and the NCCER and NABCEP for construction and solar professionals, respectively. The program is also a pre-apprenticeship qualifier, allowing graduates to move on to paid, long-term apprenticeships with unions representing carpenters, electricians, plumbers and laborers - the gateway to a lucrative and stable career in the trades.
Thomas noted that most trade unions still don't have a major focus on solar.
"We're ahead of the unions, and our graduates bring real value to them, and to the companies," he said. "The students might know more than a company's foreman knows. It's a win-win situation. Solar is a nascent industry, there's so much opportunity in this space."
When Tredgett Page, 38, connected with 548, his auto detailing work and other odd jobs were not going well. He had always loved science and been curious about photosynthesis and the sun's power.
"I had been in the streets before, and I was leaning back toward that, but God brought me here," he said. "Now I have the confidence, I know what I'm talking about, I know about megawatts and kilowatts, net metering, grid-connected, pretty much anything about solar."
He sees metaphorical significance in his new trade: "Energy is life, and it teaches you balance, it's all about negative and positive ions." He feels like "the sky is the limit" after the training.
"I have so much skill that they gave me, now I'm hungry to use it," he said. "I'm a little nervous, but optimistic, excited, very exuberant!"
Kari Lydersen wrote this article for Energy News Network.
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More regulatory action is needed, but a controversial pipeline project in North Dakota is moving forward after a permit was approved last week.
Supporters and opponents are now eyeing the next steps.
The state's Public Service Commission gave Summit Carbon Solutions the green light for a siting permit for its planned route in North Dakota.
The company wants to construct a multi-state pipeline in the Midwest to capture carbon pollution from ethanol plants and store the emissions underground in North Dakota.
The commission last year rejected Summit's initial permit request.
Zach Cassidy, CO2 pipeline organizer for the Dakota Resource Council, said the latest outcome raises a big question.
"Who in our state government, or our local governments, has the power to make safety decisions on this pipeline for their residents?" said Cassidy. "Because if county commissioners can't do it, and if the PSC won't do it, that means that no one is looking out for us."
He's referring to rulings that state law supersedes counties pursuing zoning restrictions.
Cassidy said in North Dakota, Summit still needs a storage permit and opponents will focus on that, along with legislative changes.
The company praised the decision, noting it will soon re-apply for a permit in South Dakota, which also initially said no.
The project has led to backlash over concerns such as public safety and landowner rights.
Summit also says it has secured more than 80% of land easements needed for the North Dakota route.
Ahead of last Friday's unanimous approval, Commission Chair Randy Christmann strongly encouraged the company not to rely on practices such as eminent domain as it keeps reaching out to landowners.
"It is something that burdens families for generations," said Christmann. "Eminent domain should never be abused."
Summit insists it remains committed to working collaboratively with affected landowners and communities.
Beyond the Dakotas, the company is awaiting a permit decision in Minnesota. It already secured permit approval in Iowa. Nebraska also is included in the multi-state plan.
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