Like polling from other battleground states, the race for the White House remains close in Wisconsin. But fresh numbers out this week show some momentum shifts.

In early July, ARRP released survey results in Wisconsin following the debate between President Joe Biden and Republican nominee Donald Trump. At that point, Trump had a six-percentage point lead among voters 18 and up in the Badger State. Fast forward to September, and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris leads Trump by a single point for that same demographic in a new Wisconsin poll conducted after their debate.

Pollster Bob Ward described what specifically changed following the summer shakeup on the Democratic ticket.

"The movement among Independents, where Trump was ahead of Biden by five points two months ago, and now Harris is ahead by 11 points," he explained.

The single-point lead for Harris is for a head-to-head matchup question. It's slightly larger when factoring in third-party candidates. However, among Wisconsin voters 50 and older, Trump is ahead by two points. He also maintains more support among male voters around the state, while Harris is strongly backed by women in this latest poll.

The Biden administration has touted its efforts to reduce prescription drug costs for Medicare enrollees, including price negotiations with drugmakers. There's been chatter among Republicans about rolling back those provisions. But Ward said based on the polling data, tinkering with those moves would not sit well with voters.

"We asked this question back in July in Wisconsin, and again here in this poll, and the choice between, you know, supporting a member of Congress who wants to continue negotiating lower drug prices is at 79% - versus support for the member who wants to end negotiating for lower drug prices, [which is] 8%," he said.

The balance of power in the U.S. Senate also is being closely watched this election. In the AARP Wisconsin poll, incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin holds a three-point lead over Republican challenger Eric Hovde among all likely voters.

As Hurricane Milton makes landfall and Florida recovers from Hurricane Helene's devastation, voting rights groups have filed a legal challenge to reopen the state's registration period, which ended on Monday.

Larry Hannan, communications director with State Voices Florida, expressed his support for the efforts to give Floridians more time to register amid the chaos caused by back-to-back natural disasters.

"Technically, the deadline was Monday, but I would be surprised if anyone or very many people thought 'oh I need to go out and register to vote' when they were trying to pack up their car and trying to get to somewhere else, not knowing if when they came back their house would be livable," he said.

Voting rights groups, including the Southern Poverty Law Center, League of Women Voters of Florida, and the NAACP Florida State Conference, filed suit claiming the state's refusal to extend the voter registration deadline disenfranchised many Floridians. Before Hurricane Milton, Gov. Ron DeSantis issued an executive order allowing election changes in 10 counties impacted by Hurricane Helene, permitting adjustments to early voting sites and creating consolidated voting centers.

Hannan said that while it may take some effort on the state's part, Florida officials should follow South Carolina's example and extend the voter registration deadline as people recover.

"This is an issue of fairness, and I think it impacts all voters of Florida. This is not a liberal or conservative issue," he continued. "You know, people coming into Florida or people turning 18 can be liberal or conservative."

Florida is no stranger to adjusting election procedures after major storms. The state granted flexibility to election officials, allowing the consolidation of polling places following Hurricane Ian in Southwest Florida in 2022 and Hurricane Michael in Northwest Florida in 2018.


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Now that the deadline to register to vote in Arizona has passed, voting-rights advocates are switching their focus to voter education.

Today, the League of Women Voters of Arizona holds a voter empowerment event at Mesa Community College's Kirk Student Center in honor of National Voter Education Week. The group will distribute voting materials, details on this year's ballot initiatives and information on the "One Person, One Vote" campaign, which aims to abolish the Electoral College.

Pinny Sheoran, president of the League of Women Voters of Arizona, said voters, especially younger voters, are not only energized, but what she calls "absolutely alert" to what is at stake in this election.

"They have courage, they know it is their future, and we are here to make sure we give them the wind beneath their sails to help them move this forward," she said.

Sheoran encourages all Arizona voters to do their homework and research not only candidates but the ballot propositions, too. And while Election Day isn't until November 5, early voting has already begun in the Grand Canyon State.

While Arizonans will weigh in and determine who will be the next president of the United States, Sheoran said it is crucial they also educate themselves on the down-ballot races for county and city positions that'll have a direct impact on their day-to-day lives.

Sheoran contends everything is at stake in this election, and wants younger voters to know they have the power to determine the future of the country. Despite a certain level of disillusionment among voters, more than 50% of registered voters between ages 18 and 29 voted in the 2020 race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

Sheoran is counting on that number to go up.

"If democracy dies in this election, then the work we do not only becomes harder, it may not become even possible, and that is a reality everybody needs to wake up to," she continued.

Sheoran added she doesn't want any voters, especially first-time voters, to experience unnecessary barriers in making their voices heard. A survey from Arizona State University finds two out of three Gen Z registered voters in Arizona say they plan to vote in this year's election.

It is the first day of early voting in Arizona and both presidential hopefuls will be making their cases to voters.

Gov. Tim Walz, DFL-Minn., the Democratic candidate for vice president, will attend events in the Phoenix area today, including a meeting with tribal leaders of the Gila River Indian Community before making his way to Tucson. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, DFL-Minn., the country's highest-ranking Native woman in executive office, said the Harris-Walz campaign knows the importance of Arizona's 11 electoral votes but also how decisive the Native vote can be.

"In 2020, we watched it come down to Arizona," Flanagan recounted. "I know how powerful the Native vote was in that election and I anticipate that the Native vote will turn up and turn out yet again."

Indigenous people account for about 6% of Arizona's population While Native voters have typically leaned Democratic, Republicans are also aiming to engage them.

Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, the GOP's vice presidential nominee, will hold a rally in Tucson today and early voters will begin casting their ballots in what's sizing up to be an extremely tight race.

Voters in precincts on the Navajo and Hopi reservations in northeastern Arizona cast about 60,000 ballots in 2020, compared to about 45,000 in 2016, according to The Associated Press. Flanagan called it "significant" and said she is encouraging all Arizonans to vote early.

"It's really powerful," Flanagan emphasized. "Turn up, you vote early and then, you can spend the rest of your time knocking on doors, calling people and having conversations with your friends and relatives about the power of their vote, especially in Arizona."

Vice President Kamala Harris is set to return to Arizona for the second time in two weeks, to speak at a campaign rally in Phoenix Thursday evening. Former President Donald Trump will also make his way back to the Grand Canyon State on Sunday for a rally in Prescott.

Support for this reporting was provided by The Carnegie Corporation of New York.


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