By Bennet Goldstein for Wisconsin Watch.
Broadcast version by Mike Moen for Wisconsin News Connection reporting for Wisconsin Watch-Public News Service Collaboration

As environmental groups and policy analysts in the Mississippi River basin seek solutions to shrink a massive “dead zone” that forms off the coast of Louisiana each year, they have looked to a regional cleanup program in the Chesapeake Bay as a model.

A key component of that effort, known as the Chesapeake Bay Program, is regulation.

For nearly 15 years, it’s included a legally enforceable, multi-state pollution quota — one of a select few in the nation. This “total maximum daily load” aims to reduce the amount of nutrients, like phosphorus and nitrogen, that run off into the bay’s waters. 

In excessive quantities, chemicals derived from these elements, commonly used to grow crops and fertilize lawns, can cause algae blooms and die-offs that rob waters of oxygen and suffocate aquatic life.

But the bay program’s scientific advisers recently noted the strategy is imperfect. 

After two missed deadlines to reduce nutrient runoff, and a third looming, Mid-Atlantic state and federal officials are reevaluating their options.

A unique legal agreement

In 1983, the Maryland, Pennsylvania and Virginia governors along with the mayor of Washington and administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency signed the Chesapeake Bay Agreement, a pledge to reduce the pollutants and sediment entering the bay that contribute to the loss of organisms like seagrasses, shellfish and waterfowl.

The tapering of nitrogen and phosphorus remained the focus of subsequent agreements, but the jurisdictions did not meet their goals voluntarily, so in 2010 the EPA created the country’s most expansive pollution quota. It applied to six states — Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia — and the District of Columbia.

The quota’s creation and enforcement took political arm-twisting, including an act of Congress, a presidential executive order and multiple lawsuits. It requires nutrient plans from each jurisdiction and “reasonable assurances” each will take steps to control pollution from “nonpoint sources” like farm fields and parking lots. 

If states fail to meet their obligations by set deadlines, the EPA can implement stricter limits, force unregulated polluters to get permits and redirect or condition grant money.

Signatories believed they would achieve the program’s primary goal — improving habitat for the bay’s aquatic life — if they capped nitrogen and phosphorus entering the Chesapeake each year at 214.9 million and 13.3 million pounds, respectively, and sediment at 18,587 million pounds per year.

Instead, scientific modeling estimated that 258 million pounds of nitrogen and 15 million pounds of phosphorus entered the bay in 2021, a reduction from previous years thanks to upgrades to wastewater treatment plants and lower airborne emissions, but still off the mark. The program did hit its sediment target.

The bay program’s advisers say those declines represent achievements. Without the nitrogen and phosphorus reductions, things could be a lot worse as the region’s waters warm, urban population grows and agriculture expands. The bay’s 1-cubic-mile dead zone also might be even larger. 

Nonetheless, the sluggish progress remains an inconvenient truth. Officials have concluded they will not meet a 2025 deadline to stem the flow of nutrients after failing to achieve benchmarks set for 2000 and 2010.

“At the rate we’re going, it’s going to take about 150 years,” said Denice Wardrop, a bay program science adviser who directs the Chesapeake Research Consortium. “We better learn how to do it better.”

The program offers lessons for the Mississippi River basin too.

Something is better than nothing

Efforts in the Mississippi River, where environmental regulations are comparatively lax, to reduce annual injections of waterborne nutrients into the Gulf of Mexico largely have failed. This summer’s hypoxic zone is forecast to span 5,827 square miles, 5% larger than average. 

Scientists expect climate change to worsen conditions by warming the gulf’s waters, which would cause it to retain even less dissolved oxygen, and increasing rain, causing more runoff.

“The way that we operate right now is very much a state-by-state, choose-your-own-adventure model,” said Maisah Khan, former policy director at the Mississippi River Network.

Several groups say the federal government needs to lead and coordinate state restoration efforts, as it does in the Chesapeake Bay.

A Mississippi River-wide nutrient quota could streamline and prioritize runoff control projects and allocate federal dollars where they are needed most. Numerous academics and the National Research Council Water Science and Technology Board of the National Academies also embrace the concept.

“Without that,” said Alicia Vasto, water program director with the Iowa Environmental Council, “I think we’re kind of rudderless.”

So why doesn’t a Mississippi River quota already exist?

For one, the scale of the problem, said professor emeritus David Dzombak of Carnegie Mellon University, who chaired the National Academies committee that recommended policies to improve the river’s water quality.

Given the challenges that come with coordinating nutrient quotas in the 64,000-square-mile bay watershed, doing so across 1.2 million square miles in the Mississippi River basin — which comprises 41% of the continental United States — seems unimaginable.

Another factor: political will.

Basin states must cooperate with their neighbors to enforce a quota, but their interests vary significantly. Far upstream, a Louisiana shrimp trawler’s livelihood is all but haze in the distance. Meanwhile, few states are hungry for more federal oversight, and the EPA is likewise reluctant to brandish a stick.

The agency said it prefers helping states develop their own lists of impaired waters and cleanup plans, rather than doing so itself for an entire region all at once.

That’s exactly what environmental groups say isn’t working.

A better quota

Yet Chesapeake Bay scientists admit their regional nutrient quota isn’t a panacea.

“It’s a two-edged sword,” Wardrop said. “While it had some wonderful benefits in initiating action, of building an accountability system, it had some consequences where you got painted into a corner.”

Regulators fixated on tabulating the total pounds of sediment, nitrogen and phosphorus that drain into the bay’s deep channel (where the hypoxic zone forms each year), she said, instead of considering other ways to improve conditions for its plants and animals.

For instance, restoring wetlands and protecting shorelines could enhance shallow-water habitat for fish and mollusks, even if the bay program hasn’t completely reduced nutrient runoff.

“Yes, phosphorus and nitrogen are important, but it’s not a fix-all,” said Zach Taylor, freshwater mussel hatchery manager at the Maryland Department of Natural Resources. “There are still other considerations for improving the water quality, but I do think that it’s a good place to start.”

Because the bay’s shallows respond more quickly to falling nutrient levels, scientists say, the program should prioritize those regions for habitat improvement, which could help rally public enthusiasm. 

The same holds true for the Mississippi River basin. Improving water quality in upper basin states helps that region and the gulf, said Doug Myers, Maryland senior scientist with the Chesapeake Bay Foundation.

“You certainly don’t want your whole Mississippi River project tied to meeting dissolved oxygen criteria in the Gulf of Mexico,” he said. “It’s the people who live in those inland states that are gonna have to see the benefits for themselves and get excited about it for the benefit of their communities.”

The elephant in the room

As industry and sewage facilities cut their discharge, agricultural runoff now ranks as the largest remaining contributor to the bay’s water pollution — about half of all nitrogen and a quarter of phosphorus.

The situation is more pronounced in the Mississippi River basin, where an estimated 60% to 80% of the nitrogen entering the gulf originates at farms and livestock operations.

Bay scientists say a nutrient imbalance impedes improvement more than anything else. 

As farms multiply and expand, agricultural producers import more nutrient-rich fertilizer and animal feed. Hungry livestock convert feed into manure, which farmers apply to fields along with synthetic fertilizer. But crops don’t absorb all the nutrients. Excess nitrogen and phosphorus build up in soil, resulting in harmful runoff.

The source of the bay program’s authority, the Clean Water Act, can’t place pollution limits on field runoff. Instead, state and federal agencies offer grants and incentives to encourage producers to adopt better practices like planting cover crops or ceasing to till fields before planting.

But bay researchers say agencies promote these practices without considering their effectiveness or placement. 

The cheapest interventions, such as cover crops, offer farmers private benefits like improved soil health. But they are the least efficient at removing nutrients from the ground compared to other remedies like denitrifying bioreactors, structures that reduce nitrogen in field runoff. 

That leaves taxpayers with the fewest pounds of nutrients removed per public dollar spent.

The scientists say the program could stop tallying the number of nutrient-cutting practices installed on farms and instead incentivize success. For example, regulators could measure the nitrogen coming off fields and pay farmers when they fall under a set limit.

“We’ve maybe got to change our incentivizing systems for how we ask farmers to do things,” Wardrop said.


Bennet Goldstein wrote this article for Wisconsin Watch.


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Minnesota is credited for having strong wetland protections. But the research community warns the growing presence of factory farms in the Midwest makes it harder to shield these natural resources.

A new report from the Union of Concerned Scientists says 30 million acres of wetlands in the Upper Midwest are at risk of destruction by industrial agriculture and other heavy industries.

The authors said the U.S. Supreme Court's recent decision to strip some federal protections from wetlands accelerates the potential loss.

The Research Director for the Union's Food & Environment program Stacy Woods said because of the role wetlands play in flood mitigation, states in this region are likely to have a harder time limiting damage from a major rain event.

"We know that flooding is a significant issue," said Woods. "It's expensive, and it's getting worse as the climate warms."

While Minnesota's laws might help offset some of the federal impact, the report says neighboring states like South Dakota and Iowa are more vulnerable to wetland loss.

It says priorities of the incoming Trump administration could further complicate protections - but if lawmakers can agree, there could be opportunities in the Farm Bill debate to bolster existing conservation programs.

Wetlands can capture and slow flood waters that threaten homes, but Woods pointed out they do so much more.

"They're often called nature's kidneys, because they provide such a service in cleaning our waterways," said Woods. "But when we dump so much pesticide and fertilizer, and other pollutants onto our fields, that can run off into these wetlands and really impact the wetlands' ability to clean our water."

Meanwhile, researchers say one acre of wetlands provides $745 of flood mitigation benefits to residential homes.

Without wetlands, they say homeowners and taxpayers absorb those costs through the National Flood Insurance Program.




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The most current study from the Environmental Protection Agency estimated more than 143 million Americans are at risk of drinking water tainted with PFAS chemicals, including in Texas.

Water utility companies across the country tested their drinking water for 29 different PFAS compounds. They are known as "forever chemicals," because they do not break down easily in the environment or the body.

Neil Carman, clean air program director of the Lone Star Chapter of the Sierra Club, said the man-made chemicals are found in everyday products.

"Nonstick pans like Teflon, also stain-resistant fabrics, like Gore-Tex and waterproof clothing," Carman outlined. "The biggest source is probably from the firefighting foam."

He pointed out when firefighters use the foam to extinguish a fire, it is left on the ground and seeps into nearby water sources.

Some supporters of President-elect Donald Trump have said they want to revoke or weaken water standards for six PFAS chemicals. According to the Environmental Working Group, it would leave nearly 46 million Americans with no protections.

The EPA said its data is not yet complete but it has already identified PFAS contamination at almost 8,900 sites nationwide, including more than 100 in Texas. Carman noted the chemicals have been linked to multiple health problems.

"They could cause cancer, they disrupt the immune system, they could interfere with pregnancies, they can cause all kinds of health effects," Carman explained. "We're still learning about them but they're not good."

The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality is the state agency charged with PFAS enforcement. Carman added a home water filtration system is one option for curbing some toxic chemicals.

A delegation of New Mexico lawmakers is asking the federal government to quickly resolve long-standing litigation affecting water users in the Rio Grande Basin.

In a 2013 lawsuit, Texas alleged New Mexico farmers were using groundwater previously allocated to Texas. Then in 2022, the two states reached an out-of-court agreement. But the federal government objected and a subsequent U.S. Supreme Court ruling said government consent was needed first.

Andrew Mergen, visiting assistant clinical professor of environmental law at Harvard University, said a lot has changed since the original water compact was signed in 1939.

"This is, in some ways, about growth in New Mexico that has accelerated groundwater pumping in the Rio Grande," Mergen pointed out. "How are you going to manage that groundwater pumping in a way that the compact terms are met?"

New Mexico's U.S. Senators and Representatives have sent a letter to the Departments of Interior and Justice asking for resolution by year's end. Bergen believes it is unlikely but without it, the states and federal government must argue their case at a trial in federal court.

Mergen noted decades-old water allocations in the West were based on what was known at the time. Parties could only guess about population growth and could not anticipate the advent of more oil and gas drilling, increased groundwater crop irrigation and sustained periods of drought, all amid climate change.

"That's what makes this profoundly difficult," Mergen observed. "That's what the rub of this case is, that the compact was negotiated a long time ago. Things change. How do you account for change?"

The Rio Grande Basin is critical to agriculture, industry and the environment, providing irrigation water for nearly 2 million acres of crop and pasture land, supporting the outdoor recreation economy and providing habitat for fish and wildlife.


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