By Lee Banville for The Conversation.
Broadcast version by Mark Moran for Big Sky Connection reporting for the Rural News Network-Public News Service Collaboration

Jon Tester has never had it easy.

The three-term Democratic senator from Montana has scored more than 50% of the vote only once in his three runs for the U.S. Senate, attracting 50.3% of the vote in 2018 against state auditor and future U.S. Rep. Matt Rosendale.

This year, Tester’s always-perilous path to reelection seems narrower and more harrowing than ever before. And the outcome could determine whether the Senate remains in Democratic control or flips to the Republicans.

Current polls and political prognosticators are even starting to turn on the moderate from the farming community of Big Sandy with the flattop haircut. FiveThirtyEight has Tester’s opponent, former Navy SEAL and businessman Tim Sheehy, up four percentage points, and the venerable Cook Political Report has gone so far as to say the race “leans Republican.”

For Montana State University political scientist Jessi Bennion, this election may be the end of an era in rural America.

“I used to always call Tester the unicorn candidate because there was no one like him,” she told my students a couple of weeks back. “He was a farmer, he was a rural Democrat, the last rural Democrat.”

The end of the unicorn?

I teach political reporting at the University of Montana School of Journalism, and every two years I send students out to interview candidates, profile races and talk with voters. It is true that the state has changed even since Tester won in 2018.

Despite an influx of outsiders over the past decade, Montana is still a sparsely populated state boasting 1.1 million people in the latest census. Though the state has historically relied on mining and timber for much of its economy, new economic activity in tourism and technology have helped fuel a 10% jump in population in the most recent census.

But with that influx, housing costs have soared and so have property taxes. It also leaves one of Montana’s political traditions in danger.

See, Montana has a history of doing something very few people do these days – ticket splitting, when a person votes in an election for candidates from opposing parties. In a time of deep polarization, it is hard to imagine, but out here in the Rocky Mountains and the northern plains, voters would consistently vote for a Republican for president and often for the Legislature, but also for Democrat Jon Tester.

Tester was able to put together a coalition of voters in the few pockets of liberals – college towns such as Missoula, union strongholds such as Butte and Indigenous voters on the reservation – and carve away enough moderate voters in more rural areas to eke out wins. When I moved here in 2009, it was not just Tester who did this. Back then, Montana had a Democratic governor, attorney general and head of schools. But over time those statewide offices have all gone, often by double digits, to Republicans.

No Democrat has won statewide since Tester did it back in 2018.

Migration and the march from purple to red

Then COVID-19 hit Montana.

The state saw a surge in population, jumping nearly 5% between 2020 and 2023, and experts such as political scientist Jeremy Johnson told my students earlier this fall that it is important to know who these new residents are.

“I still think the race, you know, can be competitive,” Johnson said. “I do think that some of my broader themes here – the polarization, the calcification, the reluctance to ticket split – makes it harder for Tester. Plus, I think there is some evidence that more Republican-leaning voters have moved to the state than Democrat-leaning voters in the last few years.”

One analysis reported on by the Montana Free Press found that for every two Democrats who moved to Montana since 2008, three Republicans did.

Montana does not have party registration, so when you vote in a primary, they give you a ballot for both parties, and you choose the one you want to participate in. In the highly publicized U.S. Senate primary this year, only 36% of primary voters voted in the Democratic primary, while 64% chose to vote in the Republican primary.

The one question mark of 2024

Ask Sen. Tester, and he will say his campaign is anything but over. He is stressing his independence from his political party, how Republican President Donald Trump signed bills he sponsored and his long-running support of veterans as cornerstones of his campaign.

But his path to reelection may run right through Roe v. Wade.

Montana’s constitution was written in 1972, and it has some pretty progressive elements, including a right to a clean environment and an explicit right to privacy, as opposed to the more implied one in the U.S. Constitution. And in 1999, the state Supreme Court said that right to privacy included abortion access.

Still, in part to ensure that a later court decision could not strip away that right, voters have put CI-128 on the ballot this fall, which would explicitly include protection for abortion access in the state constitution.

Tester hit the issue hard in his last debate with Sheehy on Sept. 30, 2024.

“The bottom line is this: Whose decision is it to be made?” Tester said during the debate. “Is it the federal government’s decision, the state government’s decision, Tim Sheehy’s decision, Jon Tester’s decision? No, it’s the woman’s decision. Tim Sheehy’s called abortion ‘terrible’ and ‘murder.’ That doesn’t sound to me like he’s supporting the woman to make that decision.”

Tester’s supporters hope the initiative could inspire younger voters and moderate women to flock to the polls this fall, and that might make Tester’s path to reelection a bit more doable.

But it is going to take a bit of unicorn magic, perhaps, for Tester to win a fourth term.

Back at Montana State University, Bennion said the situation looks pretty dire for the Democrats in rural states.

“I don’t see, unless our state changes in a lot of different ways, I don’t see a Democrat winning in a long time,” he said. “Just the way our state is growing, the kind of person that is moving here and voting.”


This story was originally produced by Lee Banville for The Conversation as part of the Rural News Network, an initiative of the Institute for Nonprofit News (INN), supporting more than 475 independent, nonprofit news organizations.


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With the Independence Day holiday weekend here, North Dakotans might be out at parades, fireworks shows and barbecues. However, new polling indicates that many Americans are struggling to feel optimistic about the state of the country.

A new Gallup survey shows 58% of U.S. adults say they're proud to be an American. While there are some partisan splits, the overall percentage is a record low for the annual poll question.

Barbara Headrick, president of the League of Women Voters of North Dakota, said it's not surprising, given the sharp divides between the two major parties. But she feels there's something else at play.

"There is still an after effect, I believe, from the pandemic from that separation from each other that we had," she said.

That the pandemic was so politicized is another complicating factor that prevented the country from healing, Headrick said, adding that it's understandable some Americans are very concerned about various rights being taken away. However, she noted the U.S. has deep flaws throughout its history, and there are still many more rights afforded today than in past decades.

If heated rhetoric clouding U.S. politics has got you down, Headrick said, you can still show American pride through actions.

"Find a way to love your country by making it better," she said.

Headrick said it can involve showing support for civil workers or volunteering at a local homeless or animal shelter. She added that expressing pride through elections doesn't just involve voting, noting that there are opportunities to stay informed about how your local government is addressing pressing issues, such as affordable housing.


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A new Indiana law, starting today, allows school board candidates to list their political affiliation on the ballot.

Candidates may choose to register with a political party, as independents or not disclose any affiliation. Those who do not select will have a blank space next to their name and straight-ticket voting will not apply to school board races. Those opposed to the new law said it injects unnecessary politics into a role traditionally focused on education.

Leslie Jacobs, a school board member for the Fayette County School Corporation in Connersville, is against the new law.

"In my 10 years, I couldn't tell you the political leanings of anybody on my board. Never comes up," Jacobs explained. "Our discussions are purely about educational opportunities, picking a superintendent, looking at budget."

She warned requiring party labels might discourage qualified candidates from running. Supporters of the new law said it increases transparency.

Jennifer Blackburn, a school board member for the East Allen County Schools near Fort Wayne, also opposes the new law.

"The scenario that there are four candidates potentially running and three are Democrat, one is a Republican -- this last school board election -- none of us were opposed," Blackburn pointed out. "As big as our county is, there are not a lot of people running."

The law will first affect school board elections in November.


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A three-part online training series on how to run for office and govern effectively begins Monday, designed for people running at any level of government office in Western states, including Wyoming.

The training is part of the Grassroots Democracy Program under the Western Organization of Resource Councils, a group organizing in rural parts of the West and includes Wyoming's Powder River Basin Resource Council.

Gwen Lachelt, political director for the group, said the series will help answer a broad range of questions.

"Everything from, 'Am I ready to run for office? How do I organize my campaign?' To, 'how do I govern, and how can I be an effective elected official?'" Lachelt explained.

As of Friday, Lachelt noted about 50 people had signed up for the training. Registration is still open until the event starts Monday at 5:30 p.m. MT.

Lachelt added she is seeing a lot of interest in running for office from people of all age groups and all backgrounds. She emphasized the group hopes to connect with Westerners who care about natural resources.

"Our goal is to build a bench of elected officials across our regions who will champion democracy and also work to protect the West's land, air, and water," Lachelt stressed.

Guest speakers at the event include Rep. Katie Sullivan, D-Missoula, who is the House Minority Leader, and Kevin Williams, a board member of Colorado's Delta-Montrose Electric Association.


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