As President-elect Donald Trump is sworn in next month, the farming community wonders if he'll follow through on tariff threats. One expert says for top soybean states such as North Dakota, farmers aren't in a great position to withstand any fallout.

The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture farm income forecast paints a gloomy picture, with declines in commodity prices dragging things down. And the incoming administration appears poised to enact more tariffs - as it did during Trump's first term.

Ben Palen, who runs the consulting firm Ag Management Partners, said this time around, there's increased political instability on the global front and greater export competition.

"I just don't think that you can have a coherent and consistent policy for agriculture if you go from one crisis to another," he said.

Trump regained strong support from agricultural counties in this election, but Palen said his fellow producers need to be prepared for what happens now that the votes have been counted. In Trump's first term, emergency aid was sent to farmers affected by the initial trade war. But Palen noted there's a strong push for the new administration to pursue budget cuts, so financial relief could be harder to come by.

Even though many farmers still back Trump, Palen said he feels this sector doesn't want to get swept up in trade rhetoric and have to be bailed out.

"I think farmers are very good at production," he said. "It's just part of our DNA; we want to produce, produce, produce."

He argued that it's up to policymakers to find new markets for farmers to sell their crops, as opposed to simply focusing on trade disputes.

Other voices, such as the Texas agriculture commissioner, have welcomed the idea of new tariffs, saying the U.S. needs to hold firm against countries such as China.

In the first trade war, U.S. agricultural export losses exceeded $27 billion.


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In North Dakota, 2025 could be another year when the state puts out the welcome mat for the livestock industry.

Following task force recommendations, the Legislature will consider updating how much local governments can restrict feedlot operations. The panel was specifically looking at distances allowed between larger livestock sites and homes, businesses and schools.

Doug Goehring, North Dakota's agriculture commissioner, took part in the discussions and argued while the rules would be more relaxed, they are still tougher than those in other states. He said exemptions could be carved out -- moving feedlots back a bit -- by the use of an "odor modeling tool"

"It looks at prevailing winds and information that's collected from different data points, weather stations," Goehring explained. "Counties can actually look at it and determine if the setbacks that are in place are sufficient, or they could actually grant a variance."

Feedlots with large animal herds, sometimes known as concentrated animal feeding operations, are under scrutiny from environmentalists over the effects on air and water quality. State leaders say North Dakota lags behind neighboring states in animal agriculture but some projects have faced local backlash. A Senate bill, based on panel recommendations, calls for reducing the maximum setback distance by a quarter mile in most cases.

Supporters of expanding livestock output said it brings more jobs to smaller towns.

Aaron Birst, executive director of the North Dakota Association of Counties, who sat in on the task force, said it recognized the need but cautioned it cannot outweigh how a local community values quality-of-life metrics and whether they would be harmed by an industry.

"It's not even just concentrated feeding-lot operations. It's any economic development, whether it's oil activity or putting in a large Amazon station," Birst outlined. "Those all, if they want to be successful, have to have local government buy-in."

While Birst acknowledged a healthy balance is desirable, his group has yet to take a stance on the proposed changes. There were similar debates in 2023 when the Legislature narrowed the scope of corporate farm regulations. More broadly, researchers at the University of Missouri found despite what backers of large livestock operations say, their economic strengths do not stretch as far as advertised.


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Wisconsin has just added more than 30,000 acres across two counties to its protected agricultural lands, advancing its commitment to preserve the state's farming heritage and supporting conservation farming practices.

Agricultural Enterprise Areas are community-driven initiatives aimed at protecting farmland and boosting the local economy.

Wednesday Coye, Farmland Preservation Program manager for the Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection, said the process is one of two ways Wisconsinites can participate in the Farmland Preservation Program.

"We get to see what landowners identify as areas that are important to their local agricultural communities -- both economically and historically -- and then, also seeing how that interacts overall with the statewide agricultural landscape," Coye explained.

Agricultural Enterprise Area landowners also contribute to conservation practices across the state by voluntarily signing agreements to use their land for agricultural purposes for a set time period and implement environmentally friendly farming methods. In return, they may be eligible for farm tax credits.

The assurance of long-term land preservation also provides farmers with peace of mind for future investments. Coye pointed out the new Delavan Lake Watershed Agricultural Enterprise Area serves to protect land near large lake attractions like Lake Geneva.

"There are a lot of interests there in developing the area but then there's also a lot of interest from their agricultural producers to protect the farmland that's there," Coye observed.

By designating new Agricultural Enterprise Areas, she stressed landowners and community members are taking proactive steps toward preventing development, which could convert land to nonagricultural use.

The latest areas, across Sauk and Walworth counties, add to the state's nearly 2 million acres of Agricultural Enterprise Areas. Wisconsin now has 51 areas spanning 140 towns and the Bad River Reservation.


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Some farm advocates in rural America, including Nebraska, are calling on the Trump administration to continue investing in small communities.

They propose that new federal investments in agriculture wind up in the hands of farmers in rural communities.

Nebraska Farmers Union President John Hansen said he is cautiously optimistic about how rural policy will look in the new administration, but said it will start with fair competition in the agriculture markets.

"The markets are not competitive now," said Hansen. "So, if they're not competitive, they're not functional. They don't perform as they should. And we want more competition. So, in order to get there, we need some appropriate regulation in order to create competition. And in the absence of competition, there's collusion."

Hansen and other rural farm advocates are calling for increased competition in the supply chain and food processing sectors of the agriculture economy, and for more federal investments at the local level - where he said farmers are facing unprecedented financial stress.

Hansen added that markets are far more consolidated today than they were when lawmakers created the Packers and Stockyards Act in 1921, especially in beef and pork.

"So, when you look at it through the lens of time," said Hansen, "are we winning or losing here?"

Hansen said consolidation and a lack of market competition have put unprecedented pressure and financial stress on farmers, and he said no matter what policies are set in Washington, most solutions happen at the local level.




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