By Vanessa Davidson / Broadcast version by Farah Siddiqi reporting for the Kent State NewsLab-Ohio News Connection Collaboration.

“As Ohio goes, so goes the nation” is a saying that rang true for many presidential election cycles. Ohio was a key swing state for decades, voting with the winner of U.S. presidential elections every year from 1960 until 2020. 

But since 2012, the margin of voters in favor of Republican presidential candidates has steadily increased. In 2012, around 47.7% of Ohio voters favored the Republican presidential candidate, followed by 51.7% in 2016 and 53.3% in 2020. 

In 2024, Donald Trump won 55.2% of Ohio votes. 

Experts cite a variety of reasons for that shift — including a decline in the power of labor unions, fewer college-educated voters than the national average and the effectiveness of the Republican Party’s campaign methods.

“Because we were a big manufacturing state, and because manufacturing jobs did usually require a college education, it wasn't necessary for a lot of Ohioans to get a college degree,” said former Ohio Governor Bob Taft, now a professor at The University of Dayton . 

“And you know, one of the key breaks now between Republican voters and Democrat voters is Republicans are doing a lot better with and particularly Trump is doing a lot better with voters without a college degree,” he said. “So I think that too is one of the factors that explains why Ohio has become so red as a state.”

Like many of the states that surround it, Ohio is what’s known as a Rust Belt state. With the flourishing of automotive and manufacturing industries, many blue-collar jobs emerged between the 19th century and the 20th century.

However, throughout the later half of the 20th century and early 21st century, factories gradually closed, taking manufacturing and supporting jobs with them. As a result, numbers in labor unions dwindled, causing a lack of resources and campaigning — a hit that impacted the strategy of the Democratic Party.

“Organized labor was a big part of the Democratic strength in Ohio when I first entered politics, because the labor unions had to have more members,” said Taft.

Taft was governor of Ohio from 1999 to 2007, representing the Republican Party. Ted Strickland, a Democrat, served one term after Taft. All Ohio’s governors since 2011 have been Republicans. 

Unions at that time, Taft said, “Had more resources. They actively engaged in political campaigns, generally on behalf of Democratic candidates. We still have labor unions which still have some members, but it's not on the scale that it used to be, say, 20 or 30 years ago.”

Ohio’s working class sought out support and representation after the 2007 recession, and still continue to by voting for candidates that prioritize their needs. The focus on blue-collar workers was key to former President Barack Obama’s consecutive wins in 2008 and 2012. 

“Obama did carry Ohio twice, but Obama was, I think, perceived as a change candidate, someone that would make things better,” Taft said. “And so, he was able to appeal to a broader group of voters than a Democrat might normally appeal to in Ohio.”

Donald Trump's victory in 2024 has also been partly attributed to his focus on promising change and speaking towards the working class. 

Social media has also played a role in Trump’s victories since he was able to reach broader audiences, said Dr. Lauren Copeland, the director of Community Research Institute at Baldwin Wallace University.

“Social media has played a large role in creating divisiveness in society, and at the same time, it's also provided candidates — such as former President Trump and now incoming President Trump — with platforms to directly reach out to their base without having to go through the media,” Copeland said. 

“I don't think that Trump would have succeeded as much as he did in 2016 had he not used Twitter effectively to reach his base.”

College degrees have also had a big impact on the way Ohioans vote. People with college degrees are more likely to vote Democrat than people without college degrees. 

Voters without degrees lean toward Republicans. According to the Pew Research Center, around 63% of Republican voters in 2022 did not have college degrees, compared to 49% of Democratic voters.

This divide in education represents a broader perspective. Often, people without college degrees prioritize issues like immigration and job security, which are topics that align with more conservative policies.

“People without a four-year college degree tend to be more conservative than people who have a four-year degree, or especially an advanced degree,” said Copeland.

According to 2023 census data, 32% of Ohioans have bachelor’s degrees, 4.2 percentage points below the national average of 36.2%. 

Racial demographics also play a part in how a community votes. Outside of major cities where the majority of people of color live — like Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Akron, Toledo and Dayton — all other counties in Ohio voted red in 2024.

“People who are nonwhite, such as African Americans, tend to be more liberal than their white counterparts,” said Copeland. 

In 2023, 76.7% of Ohioans were white, compared to 58.4% of Americans overall. 

“When you have a state like Ohio that has a lot less diversity than, say, other states like Illinois, New York, or even some of the states in the southwest, then you're going to have a climate in which Republicans are going to be more likely to win,” Copeland said.

With these many different factors influencing Ohio’s political landscape, Ohio’s future as a swing state is questionable. 

“Ohio will still be overall, in all probability, a Republican state, but… not as Republican as a state like Montana,” said Taft. “So I think a Democrat will win, potentially statewide, in Ohio. But it's a little uphill for the Democrat Party.”


This collaboration is produced in association with Media in the Public Interest and funded in part by the George Gund Foundation.


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The Ohio Democratic Party is ramping up to get more people thinking about running for statewide offices.

The goal is to boost representation in upcoming elections because Democrats have noted too often, Republican candidates in Ohio run unopposed. The recruitment program is part of a national campaign led by the group Contest Every Race.

Katie Seewer, press secretary for the Ohio Democratic Party, pointed out Ohio has thousands of local offices on the ballot. She said they have identified suburbs of major cities and rural areas as ideal spots for future contenders.

"Once they're interested, we connect them with our county parties. We can get resources there," Seewer explained. "Then, we also provide training and teach folks how to get on the ballot, how to raise money, all that stuff that you need to know to run a campaign."

The recruitment program includes text messaging infrastructure, coaching calls and meetings to organize and mobilize. Seewer argued finding candidates in every Ohio county who reflect their local communities is key to widespread voter representation. She added more than 200 people have reached out so far to express an interest since recruitment efforts began.

Just under 72% of Ohio's registered voters cast their ballot in last year's presidential election. The outcome was not what Democrats had hoped for, although Vice President Kamala Harris' short but impactful presidential campaign has inspired more women to consider running for office nationwide.

Seewer emphasized the recruitment efforts are open to anyone passionate about making change in their communities but acknowledged some women may need a nudge.

"When we do these kinds of efforts to directly recruit folks, there are studies out there that show women need to be directly asked, where guys just think, 'Hey, I could do that,'" Seewer stressed. "When we're directly asking folks, it's definitely going to lead to more women in politics and running in these races."

The recruitment program is casting a wide net for candidates to fill more than 6,000 offices, including village and city council members, school board members and other local positions. The deadline to file for the next election is Feb. 5.


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With just a few days before President Joe Biden leaves office, more than 140 nonprofits are urging him to act on the Equal Rights Amendment. Passed by Congress in 1972 and ratified by 38 states by 2020, the ERA ensures constitutional gender equality.

Amy Widestrom, executive director of the League of Women Voters of Pennsylvania, said it prohibits discrimination based on sex, empowers Congress to enforce it, and takes effect two years after ratification.

"What we're really advocating for is that because we've reached the three-quarters threshold of the states, that the archivist published the amendment. It's met the constitutional requirements to become an amendment of the United States Constitution," she explained.

Widestrom pointed out some people argue the ERA missed its congressional deadline, but legal scholars say the Constitution doesn't allow or require such deadlines for amendments. They point to the 27th Amendment, introduced with the Bill of Rights and ratified centuries later, as proof deadlines are not binding.

Widestrom said the Constitution currently lacks a provision guaranteeing equal protection based on sex.

"Right now we rely on the 14th Amendment, which guarantees equal protection under the law, but it does not specify by sex. And there is a sitting Supreme Court justice that has said that he believes that the Constitution allows for sex discrimination. So it would be an important addition to the Constitution," she continued.

Widestrom noted that during Donald Trump's first presidency, he directed the archivist not to publish the ERA, creating a less supportive environment. With Biden rescinding that directive, she believes this is the best chance for ratification. She emphasized the importance of Pennsylvanians working with Congress and the White House to explore the best options for the ERA.

A proposal to make Wisconsin's strict Voter ID law a constitutional amendment passed Wisconsin's Republican-controlled Assembly on Tuesday.

Voters will see the proposal on the April 1 ballot. If approved, the state constitution would be amended, which would make the change much harder to repeal in the future. Proponents insist stricter ID requirements help to prevent voter fraud.

Jay Heck, executive director of Common Cause Wisconsin, and other opponents said they also provide a partisan advantage for Republicans.

"All it does is, it reduces the opportunity for certain segments of the population to be able to vote," Heck explained. "It doesn't do anything about preventing fraud, and it's just a voter suppression method."

Heck believes the measure will attract more conservatives to the polls in April. And even if voters reject the idea of changing the constitution, the state's voter ID requirement, which is already among the strictest in the country, would remain.

The state's voter ID law has been long debated for its prohibitive requirements. Wisconsin allows seven forms of identification to be presented at the polls but Heck pointed out they have to meet particular requirements.

"These are forms of ID that, although they seem on the surface to make some sense, they're very difficult for some segments of the population to obtain," Heck emphasized.

Heck added rushing to put the requirements in the state constitution is strategic, given the state Supreme Court justice ballot the measure will share. Over more than 40 years, the conservative Heritage Foundation lists only 68 cases of voter fraud in Wisconsin.

Support for this reporting was provided by The Carnegie Corporation of New York.


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