Knowing weather patterns is part of farmers' skillset, helping them protect their land and profits.

But a North Dakota producer worries about the future of those tools as the Trump administration cuts staff at the National Weather Service.

Reports surfaced late last week that hundreds of probationary employees of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration were let go as the Trump administration re-shapes the federal workforce through massive layoffs.

Additional layoffs are excepted. The National Weather Service is a component of NOAA, and North Dakota Farmer Tyler Stafslien said it's a tremendous asset.

"If you're considering planting in the spring, and you go to the NWS website and you see that there's gonna be a ton of moisture in ten days or seven days from now," said Stafslien, "you might go a little harder to try to get the crop in, knowing that likely you're going to have to shut down when that moisture gets there."

Stafslien added that long-range weather outlooks help avoid planting too much fertilizer.

He said there are other weather sources he pays for, but the free National Weather Service forecasts tend to be more accurate.

It's unclear how the layoffs will impact operations, but observers say even small disruptions to data collection for forecast models could hinder accuracy.

The administration says massive layoffs are needed to cut waste.

Beyond the Weather Service cuts, Stafslien said he worries about another trade war taking shape under a new Trump administration. This week, tariffs involving Canada and Mexico could go into effect.

Stafslien said he felt the impact of similar moves during Trump's first term. He eventually got emergency relief, but stressed that's not something farmers want to plan for.

"We'd rather not have to wonder," said Stafslien, "whether or not there will be some ad-hoc disaster program that's keep us from going into bankruptcy, frankly."

Advocates for independent farmers say they want policymakers to instead help find other global markets to send their products to.

Stafslien, a North Dakota Farmers Union board member, said he also worries about U.S. Department of Agriculture layoffs hurting farmers in need of technical assistance for loan applications or navigating conservation programs.

He said he's still waiting on full payment for sustainability efforts.

The agency is trying to rehire some staff that had been focused on bird-flu mitigation.

A new study shows how extreme weather conditions negatively affect production yields on Midwest dairy farms, with a disproportionate impact on smaller farms.

Researchers at the University of Illinois studied milk production records from nine Midwest dairy farmers. Considering both temperature and humidity when measuring extreme heat, they found farms lose about 1% of milk yield annually because of heat stress, while smaller farms lose closer to 2%.

Marin Skidmore, study co-author, said when cows are in extreme heat, it can cause increased restlessness and risk of infection, and decreased appetite, which reduces milk yield and impacts bottom lines.

"To some extent, it's only 1.6%. But if you're really making every dollar from your paycheck count, because you're living in a time with high costs, then 1.6% of your paycheck being gone in a given year is meaningful," she said.

The study predicts extreme heat days to be much more frequent in years to come and milk yield losses to increase about 30% in the next 25 years.

The Midwest tends to have smaller dairy farms compared with other states, with herds ranging from 100 to 200 cows. Researchers say being able to track and compare daily milk yields across a large region with similar climates has never been done before. Skidmore said their findings suggest that larger herds seem to have some level of protection to extreme heat compared with smaller farms, which start to see impacts of heat stress at lower thresholds.

"And this is additionally concerning in the context that we're studying because we've seen a lot of dairy farm exits over the last decade or two, and many of those are small farms," she added.

While researchers say there's no silver bullet for mitigating the effects of heat stress on herds, recommendations include adjusting feeding and calving timing, and using sprinklers and improved ventilation systems.

Skidmore emphasized the need for additional support for small farms since capital costs can be particularly constraining.

"Having the access to enough capital to make these really big investments is difficult, and grants or loans to help small farms adopt some of these management technologies could be one avenue to help small farms cope with heat stress and keep them competitive," she continued.

Skidmore said more research is also needed to explore other options to best manage extreme heat on dairy farms.


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President Donald Trump is set to impose sweeping global tariffs this week, a move expected to spark retaliation against a range of American products including food.

Tad DeHaven, policy analyst at the libertarian think tank the Cato Institute, said farmers in Colorado and across the U.S. who endured losses during Trump's first-term tariffs are again facing uncertainty.

"What's frustrating to me is that taxpayers end up footing the bill," DeHaven pointed out. "Last time around, it cost taxpayers $23 billion in farm bailouts, and I think it looks like we're headed down that road again."

Trump said tariffs, which are taxes on imports mostly paid for by U.S. consumers, will compel companies outsourcing labor to places like China to move their operations back to the U.S. Trump has also floated the idea of replacing income taxes with tariffs in what would amount to a national sales tax.

DeHaven believes Trump's tariff strategy will backfire.

"The administration talks about shrinking government and cutting waste," DeHaven observed. "But I'd argue these trade wars create exactly the opposite: more bailouts, more government spending and more taxpayer-funded damage control."

Republicans in Congress have proposed $230 billion in cuts to ag funding, mostly from SNAP, formerly food stamps. But a recent poll found 60% of Trump voters said cutting SNAP is unacceptable. Trump has also canceled $13 million in funding for Colorado food banks and schools to buy food from local producers.

DeHaven added many U.S. farmers still have not recovered from Trump's first-term tariffs.

"You have to feel bad for farmers, they're getting squeezed from both ends," DeHaven emphasized. "Not only are they losing foreign markets but they are also seeing higher costs at home for essentials like equipment and fertilizer, all thanks to tariffs."


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Cuts at the U.S. Department of Agriculture have affected farming communities nationwide but a national group said its Black farmers remain unaffected.

The Memphis-based Black Farmers and Agriculturalists Association represents more than 20,000 heirs of Black landowners and ranchers across the country.

Thomas Burrell, president of the association, said because of long-standing discrimination, its members, many of whom are farmers or descendants of farmers, have not been impacted by the USDA freeze.

"What our concern has always been, notwithstanding any administrative efforts or the lack thereof, is the constant, unfortunately, of discrimination that prevents our members from being able to participate," Burrell explained. "Key phrase is 'food production.'"

Burrell noted the association's farmers operate under the USDA and still face challenges from the Pigford v. Glickman settlement. He added Congress has introduced multiple measures this year to compensate Black farmers for past discrimination. Last summer, the Biden administration provided more than $2 billion in direct payments to minority farmers affected by USDA discrimination.

Burrell argued tariffs will have both short- and long-term effects on Tennessee farmers and beyond. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins recently announced the USDA will distribute up to $10 billion to agricultural producers through the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program for 2024 crops, with another $20 billion for disaster-affected farmers.

"Now the administration is going to use this $30 billion to sustain these farmers," Burrell observed. "While that pain is being as a result of the tariffs, and hopefully, in theory, at least once the ship rights itself again, it's full speed ahead, and the economy should benefit in the long term."

Burrell pointed out the Secretary of Agriculture has promised tariffs will not harm them and disaster and commodity payments should help. But Black farmers who are long victims of discrimination still struggle to access the benefits. The core issue remains: Are they receiving equal resources to stay competitive?


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