As nationwide deportation efforts continue, new research examined the labor market of a past president to help forecast what could happen if President Donald Trump follows through on his plans.
The Obama administration deported more than 3 million people. Trump said he wants to deport more, to increase jobs for U.S. citizens. A new report from the University of Colorado found U.S. presidents have a long history of blaming immigration for the country's economic troubles, even when research shows the opposite.
Chloe East, associate professor of economics at the University of Colorado in Denver, said mass deportations and raids incite fear and leave vacant jobs U.S. citizens are unlikely to fill.
"We really don't see this substitution between unauthorized immigrants and U.S.-born workers in the way that we're promised we will by politicians," East reported. "In fact, the effect sort of goes even beyond this lack of substitution."
She pointed out the industries most likely to be affected are construction, agriculture, manufacturing and service jobs, with positions tending to be lower paid, tougher or more dangerous. East noted keeping such jobs filled actually helps to increase U.S. labor opportunities. More than 10,000 undocumented workers perform about 70% of the labor on Wisconsin dairy farms.
Inconsistencies about who exactly is being targeted by ICE agents raises concerns about racial profiling. A leaked memo shows efforts have pivoted from focusing on people committing crimes to migrant families and unaccompanied children with no criminal histories. Migrant workers make up about 20% of the U.S. workforce. East added it is striking to see history repeating itself.
"Whether we're looking a few decades back or a hundred years back, the results are very consistent and very clear that mass deportations are not the solution to any economic troubles," East observed.
While deportation data since Trump took office has yet to be released, the majority of news releases on the ICE website involve people from Mexico or Latin America. ICE said it will release updated deportation data every quarter.
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A new report warned mass deportations of undocumented immigrants in Washington would lead to labor shortages and make many goods and services more expensive.
Washington is home to 325,000 undocumented immigrants, many of whom work in agriculture, construction, and caregiving.
Kaitie Dong, senior policy analyst at the Washington State Budget and Policy Center and the report's co-author, said in 2022, undocumented workers paid nearly $1 billion in Washington state and local taxes, while generating nearly $150 billion a year for the state's gross domestic product.
"They take care of our children, they're our grocery store workers, they help build our homes," Dong outlined. "We cannot operate our day-to-day lives without immigrant workers."
Dong pointed out at a time when Washington is facing a huge revenue shortfall, giving undocumented workers legal status would boost the state's tax revenue by $100 million a year. The Trump administration said it is following through on a campaign pledge to tighten immigration enforcement.
Many of Washington's undocumented immigrants work in agriculture and the report showed losing just 5% of the workers would severely affect the state's food production, leading to higher prices. Dong warned deporting undocumented workers would also put U.S.-born employees at risk, since their jobs are interdependent. For example, she noted, migrant farmworkers often report to U.S.-born supervisors.
"The more immigrant workers that we lawlessly take away from the fields, the less need there is for U.S.-born supervisors to manage their crews," Dong pointed out.
Dong cautioned the Trump administration's deportation policies instill fear in undocumented immigrants, their families, and even U.S. citizens, and lead to lower graduation rates.
"If a parent is detained and deported, their children oftentimes will drop out of school to help support the family," Dong emphasized.
Dong added along with granting legal status, it is in Washington's best interest financially to uplift undocumented communities by funding programs providing them things like health care and unemployment benefits.
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Legal experts and advocates are outraged over the arrest of a Milwaukee judge last week who was charged with helping an undocumented defendant avoid arrest by Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
Federal authorities walked Circuit Court Judge Hannah Dugan out of her Milwaukee courtroom in handcuffs. They said she allowed an undocumented defendant appearing in her courtroom to use a side door exit to avoid ICE agents who were waiting for him. The agents later apprehended him.
Protests have since broken out in response to the arrest and legal experts are calling the charges extreme and unnecessary.
John Gross, clinical associate professor of law at the University of Wisconsin Law School, described it as a photo op for federal prosecutors.
"Federal law enforcement is trying to send some kind of message to let state officials know that they will try to aggressively prosecute anyone who can be viewed as interfering in any way with their agenda," Gross contended.
In a post on X last week, Tom Homan, President Donald Trump's border czar, warned anyone who impedes enforcement efforts or conceals "illegal aliens" will be prosecuted. Dugan is charged with obstruction of proceedings and concealing a person, and faces up to six years in prison and a $350,000 fine.
Ray Dall'Osto, partner at Gimbel, Reilly, Guerin and Brown, has practiced law in Milwaukee since 1977. He said the complaint against Judge Dugan contains misperceptions and factual inaccuracies. It is common practice for lawyers and defendants to use side doors in courtrooms like Dugan's, Dall'Osto explained, which often have full dockets.
What is uncommon and unprecedented, he pointed out, is having six officers from different federal agencies show up unannounced to a state courthouse for one immigration arrest.
"This is part of the Trump administration's gathering and requiring all federal law enforcement, no matter what, whether it's alcohol, tobacco, and firearms or DEA or FBI, to basically become immigrant catchers," Dall'Osto asserted. "Unfortunately, that's taking them away from the real crimes."
He argued Dugan is being targeted as part of a larger agenda the Trump administration has against judges. Removing her from the bench in the interim, he added, places a significant burden on an already taxed judicial system in Milwaukee.
"Again, this is highly atypical when you have offenses of this nature, particularly of someone who is not a flight risk, who is a known upstanding citizen and a lawyer and a judge, to do that, that's outrageous and totally unnecessary."
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On May 1, Oregon labor and immigrants' rights organizations are gathering in Salem calling for justice for immigrant workers and an end to mass deportations.
Immigrants make up nearly a third of Oregon's agricultural workforce, and 20% of manufacturing jobs.
Reyna Lopez, executive director of PCUN, Oregon's farmworker union, said the Trump Administration's attempts at mass deportations have shaken her community to its core, while inspiring people across the state to act.
"Immigrant Oregonians are our neighbors," Lopez pointed out. "They're our co-workers, our classmates, our friends, and people who have helped build our state for generations. May Day is about showing that we belong here."
Advocates said supporting immigrants is also important for the state financially. New data show Oregon's immigrant families contributed nearly $2 billion to Social Security and more than $500 million to Medicare in 2023.
Lopez noted this May Day in Salem, participants will urge lawmakers to pass legislation that would uplift immigrant families. She highlighted the Food for All Oregonians bill, which would extend food benefits to all Oregon children, regardless of their immigration status.
"Passing Food for All Oregonians is a part of the Oregon spirit," Lopez contended. "A part of this value that we stand up for one another and we stand up for what's right."
It is not the first time immigrant communities have been under attack, Lopez added. She remembers the "show me your papers" measures in 2007, a national push to allow local law enforcement to request proof of immigration status from anyone. She recalled those measures led to the largest May Day marches in the history of the immigrant rights movement.
"Just remember that the moment that you start feeling like you can't do anything about it, that's when their tactics start to win," Lopez stressed.
Lopez praised Oregonians for pushing for things like tuition equity for "Dreamers" and allowing all residents to get driver's licenses, regardless of immigration status.
She added May Day in Salem will see a rally, a march and many organizations setting up tables, so it is a perfect place for new people to get involved.
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