As nationwide deportation efforts continue, new research examined the labor market of a past president to help forecast what could happen if President Donald Trump follows through on his plans.
The Obama administration deported more than 3 million people. Trump said he wants to deport more, to increase jobs for U.S. citizens. A new report from the University of Colorado found U.S. presidents have a long history of blaming immigration for the country's economic troubles, even when research shows the opposite.
Chloe East, associate professor of economics at the University of Colorado in Denver, said mass deportations and raids incite fear and leave vacant jobs U.S. citizens are unlikely to fill.
"We really don't see this substitution between unauthorized immigrants and U.S.-born workers in the way that we're promised we will by politicians," East reported. "In fact, the effect sort of goes even beyond this lack of substitution."
She pointed out the industries most likely to be affected are construction, agriculture, manufacturing and service jobs, with positions tending to be lower paid, tougher or more dangerous. East noted keeping such jobs filled actually helps to increase U.S. labor opportunities. More than 10,000 undocumented workers perform about 70% of the labor on Wisconsin dairy farms.
Inconsistencies about who exactly is being targeted by ICE agents raises concerns about racial profiling. A leaked memo shows efforts have pivoted from focusing on people committing crimes to migrant families and unaccompanied children with no criminal histories. Migrant workers make up about 20% of the U.S. workforce. East added it is striking to see history repeating itself.
"Whether we're looking a few decades back or a hundred years back, the results are very consistent and very clear that mass deportations are not the solution to any economic troubles," East observed.
While deportation data since Trump took office has yet to be released, the majority of news releases on the ICE website involve people from Mexico or Latin America. ICE said it will release updated deportation data every quarter.
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An Illinois law professor is weighing in on what she called a "very public and open test of due process" for immigrants being deported from the United States without court hearings.
On Wednesday, a U.S. district judge denied the Justice Department's request to further delay the wrongful deportation case of a Maryland man, Kilmar Obrego Garcia, who was sent to a prison in El Salvador. Both a U.S. District Court and the U.S. Supreme Court have ordered the Trump administration to "facilitate" his return.
Victoria Carmona, clinical professor of immigration law, Chicago-Kent College of Law, said regardless of citizenship status, the lack of due process for one person is a crisis for everyone.
"The idea that the U.S. government is absolutely flouting our constitutional right to due process is terrifying, because if they're going to do it for one person, this is the test case," Carmona explained. "This is to see what can the government get away with and start pushing the odometer further and further away from due process. And it should be scary to everyone."
The government now has until May 5 to report any efforts it is making to comply with the court orders. In the meantime, Gov. JB Pritzker said Illinois is looking into ways to cut any state financial ties to Salvadoran companies in protest of that government's imprisonment of hundreds of deportees taken from the U.S. without court hearings.
Obrego Garcia already had a set of protections which said he could not return to his native country of El Salvador for fear of government persecution. The Justice Department said deporting him was an administrative error, although the Trump administration insists he is affiliated with a gang.
Carmona pointed out both countries' leaders are making the case more difficult to resolve.
"From El Salvador's perspective, I'm sure they're upset because their citizen had essentially claimed protections and saying that the El Salvadoran government would harm him if he returned," Carmona observed. "But this idea that the U.S. has no position to facilitate his return is an absolute lie."
Whatever happens to Obrego Garcia, Carmona added the unprecedented nature of the executive branch ignoring judicial orders has set the U.S. up for a constitutional crisis.
"At this point, I think Congress should be looking at impeachment," Carmona contended. "If Trump is going to clearly violate the Supreme Court orders, the resolution is impeachment."
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A new report warned mass deportations of undocumented immigrants in Washington would lead to labor shortages and make many goods and services more expensive.
Washington is home to 325,000 undocumented immigrants, many of whom work in agriculture, construction, and caregiving.
Kaitie Dong, senior policy analyst at the Washington State Budget and Policy Center and the report's co-author, said in 2022, undocumented workers paid nearly $1 billion in Washington state and local taxes, while generating nearly $150 billion a year for the state's gross domestic product.
"They take care of our children, they're our grocery store workers, they help build our homes," Dong outlined. "We cannot operate our day-to-day lives without immigrant workers."
Dong pointed out at a time when Washington is facing a huge revenue shortfall, giving undocumented workers legal status would boost the state's tax revenue by $100 million a year. The Trump administration said it is following through on a campaign pledge to tighten immigration enforcement.
Many of Washington's undocumented immigrants work in agriculture and the report showed losing just 5% of the workers would severely affect the state's food production, leading to higher prices. Dong warned deporting undocumented workers would also put U.S.-born employees at risk, since their jobs are interdependent. For example, she noted, migrant farmworkers often report to U.S.-born supervisors.
"The more immigrant workers that we lawlessly take away from the fields, the less need there is for U.S.-born supervisors to manage their crews," Dong pointed out.
Dong cautioned the Trump administration's deportation policies instill fear in undocumented immigrants, their families, and even U.S. citizens, and lead to lower graduation rates.
"If a parent is detained and deported, their children oftentimes will drop out of school to help support the family," Dong emphasized.
Dong added along with granting legal status, it is in Washington's best interest financially to uplift undocumented communities by funding programs providing them things like health care and unemployment benefits.
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Legal experts and advocates are outraged over the arrest of a Milwaukee judge last week who was charged with helping an undocumented defendant avoid arrest by Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
Federal authorities walked Circuit Court Judge Hannah Dugan out of her Milwaukee courtroom in handcuffs. They said she allowed an undocumented defendant appearing in her courtroom to use a side door exit to avoid ICE agents who were waiting for him. The agents later apprehended him.
Protests have since broken out in response to the arrest and legal experts are calling the charges extreme and unnecessary.
John Gross, clinical associate professor of law at the University of Wisconsin Law School, described it as a photo op for federal prosecutors.
"Federal law enforcement is trying to send some kind of message to let state officials know that they will try to aggressively prosecute anyone who can be viewed as interfering in any way with their agenda," Gross contended.
In a post on X last week, Tom Homan, President Donald Trump's border czar, warned anyone who impedes enforcement efforts or conceals "illegal aliens" will be prosecuted. Dugan is charged with obstruction of proceedings and concealing a person, and faces up to six years in prison and a $350,000 fine.
Ray Dall'Osto, partner at Gimbel, Reilly, Guerin and Brown, has practiced law in Milwaukee since 1977. He said the complaint against Judge Dugan contains misperceptions and factual inaccuracies. It is common practice for lawyers and defendants to use side doors in courtrooms like Dugan's, Dall'Osto explained, which often have full dockets.
What is uncommon and unprecedented, he pointed out, is having six officers from different federal agencies show up unannounced to a state courthouse for one immigration arrest.
"This is part of the Trump administration's gathering and requiring all federal law enforcement, no matter what, whether it's alcohol, tobacco, and firearms or DEA or FBI, to basically become immigrant catchers," Dall'Osto asserted. "Unfortunately, that's taking them away from the real crimes."
He argued Dugan is being targeted as part of a larger agenda the Trump administration has against judges. Removing her from the bench in the interim, he added, places a significant burden on an already taxed judicial system in Milwaukee.
"Again, this is highly atypical when you have offenses of this nature, particularly of someone who is not a flight risk, who is a known upstanding citizen and a lawyer and a judge, to do that, that's outrageous and totally unnecessary."
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