The Trump administration announces its new wave of tariffs Wednesday, and with U.S. Department of Agriculture funding still a question mark, Minnesota farmers are having trouble planning ahead.
Ag economists with the American Farm Bureau Federation say the latest tariffs and retaliatory moves by trade partners could be blows felt by farmers and ranchers, especially for beef and pork.
Cindy VanDerPol and her husband, owners of Pastures A Plenty Farm in western Minnesota, are monitoring market upheavals due to tariffs and just saw a one-year pause in federal grants to help supply locally grown food to schools. She said it makes it hard to map out what they need to buy for the year.
"Do we go and purchase more laying hens? Do we purchase broiler chickens to be processed later on?" VanDerPol asked. "Those all are uncertainties right now."
She pointed out they would already have made such moves. VanDerPol added the uncertainty does not just potentially limit her farm's output but also demand for local meat processors. As in the first Trump administration, the USDA is weighing emergency aid for farmers if needed. But economists warned countries like Brazil are bigger ag competitors now and if a trade war heats up, foreign markets could just look there.
Federal officials have released some agriculture funding initially frozen during downsizing efforts led by the White House.
Jennifer Fahy, communications director for Farm Aid, said there are still not enough details about grants seeing movement again, leaving farmers in the lurch.
"The very fact that this money that is legally due to them is being held up and they're not getting any answers on when they might receive it, if at all, it's creating inordinate stress that really is completely unnecessary and damaging to our entire food system," Fahy contended.
Fahy noted it also could mean layoffs for farmworkers, as some operations downsize or close.
Gary Wertish, president of the Minnesota Farmers Union, said when other things like rising interest rates are factored in, farmers face a crisis similar to the 1980s, when the nation lost millions of farms.
"That's where we're fearful of, that we could very easily be back into that '80s crisis time frame," Wertish cautioned.
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As many Minnesotans dig out from an early Spring snowstorm, the future of a federal program that helps low-income households pay their heating bills is less certain. State-level voices cite new spending cuts under the Trump administration. The most recent mass layoffs may include the entire staff that administers the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program - according to reports seen by the Citizens Utility Board of Minnesota. The "LIHEAP" funds are sent to state agencies for distribution.
Annie Levenson-Falk, Citizens Utility Board of Minnesota director, worries about payment delays for Minnesotans in need if federal staff isn't there.
"It's pretty concerning to see just the complete elimination of the staff on what is a vital and extremely popular program," she explained.
In an e-mailed statement, the Minnesota Commerce Department says so far this season, the program has helped about 107,000 households cover their utility bills. Amid the staffing upheaval, it anticipates running out of funds to help new applicants as early as mid-April.
The loss of LIHEAP staff comes at a time when energy customers are bracing for potentially higher bills economists link to the escalating trade war pursued by President Donald Trump. Levenson-Falk said her organization is watching to see how this region could be affected as America's trade partners respond to sweeping tariffs.
"It's going to really vary depending on where you live. Some utilities get a lot of electricity from Canada and some get much less, but I do think it could have a substantial effect on a lot of Minnesotans," she continued.
Minnesota officials are not only worried about the effects as the last bit of winter weather hangs on. There is also concern about what will happen this summer to households at risk, between the disruption of energy assistance and tariff-induced price hikes.
Levensen-Falk encouraged people who are eligible for aid to keep applying, and reaching out to service providers with questions.
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Backlash is mounting across the U.S. in response to the Trump administration's consistent push to cut federal staffing and programs. North Dakotans not happy with these moves will join another wave of protests this weekend. On Saturday, organizers in towns and cities nationwide will lead what are billed as "Hands Off" events. Demonstrators want to bring renewed focus to the level of cuts pursued by the White House, and the abrupt manner in which they're being carried out.
Lyn Dockter-Pinnick, lead of the grassroots group Red River United Indivisible, feels uneasy about what she calls a "slash and burn" mentality within the administration.
"And so, the concept of "Hands Off" is really not only saying, 'This isn't right, this isn't OK,' but also just concern over the speed and the upheaval that is happening," she said.
She is worried about services for military veterans, such as suicide prevention. The White House says it wants to root out waste and fraud. Dockter-Pinnick says reform is important, but adds that checks and balances are being ignored, citing the influence of wealthy adviser Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency. Regional events this Saturday will be held in Fargo, Grand Forks, Bismarck and Minot.
While North Dakota residents express their frustration, state agencies and nonprofits are adjusting on the fly as cuts are announced. This week, federal officials began laying off ten-thousand Health and Human Services workers.
Seth O'Neill, executive director of the North Dakota Domestic & Sexual Violence Coalition, says that includes staffers who oversee grants his network of crisis centers relies on.
"It's unnerving when you don't know who to call to get answers because you don't know who is still employed at the federal government," he explained.
While the actual prevention grants haven't been cut yet, O'Neill is still worried about their fate. He notes that for these crisis centers, federal funding makes up 30% of their budget. Late last month, North Dakota Health and Human Services officials were left scrambling after being notified that several grants, focusing on substance abuse and mental-health treatment, were terminated early.
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Minnesota lawmakers this session are emphasizing new protocols to shield state agencies from fraud. A watchdog group says so far, it appears they're on the right track.
The motivation to address this issue is tied to the high-profile "Feeding our Future" case, when dozens of people were accused of stealing pandemic relief money intended for kids' meals. It's estimated roughly $250 million was misspent, and dozens of convictions have since followed.
At the state Capitol, both Republicans and Democrats have openly discussed the need for tighter controls, which is encouraging to Matt Ehling, a board member for Minnesotans for Open Government.
"It's been a growing problem for quite a few years now," he said, "so it's nice to see that both sides of the aisle are focused on this issue this year."
One bill calls for a new state Office of Inspector General to get ahead of suspicious behavior. Ehling said the Office of Legislative Auditor does good work, but sees the need for another arm that goes beyond reviewing problems after the fact.
A separate proposal could stir backlash by no longer awarding some grants to nonprofits without a bidding process. Backers of keeping that option have argued it helps smaller groups in underserved areas get access to funding.
The Minnesota Council of Nonprofits has said it agrees that state funds must be used for their intended purpose, but worries some restrictions would make inequities worse.
Ehling said it's unfortunate that, at the height of the pandemic, federal relief packages meant to help people in need were targeted by fraudsters.
"Bad actors were able to take advantage of that, because the money was coming in so fast," he said, "and the resources to oversee the money were simply not appropriately put in place."
When those COVID spending packages were approved, states were tasked with distributing aid. Ehling's group hopes that if there's a new Office of Inspector General, it will operate with transparency. And a bipartisan group of lawmakers has said that with grant reforms, there should be assurances that smaller community groups are given a fair shot.
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