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Black smoke signals no pope was elected on first day of Vatican conclave; Nine in 10 people surveyed back climate action; 'Three-Fifths' comments ignite Indiana controversy; In Minnesota, SNAP benefits reach farmers markets, other parts of the economy.

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As Congress debates Medicaid cuts and emissions rollbacks, former presidential candidate John Kasich calls for protecting vulnerable Americans, veterans link fossil fuel dependence to military deaths, and federal funding cuts threaten health and jobs.

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DOGE guts a 30-year-old national service program, cuts are likely but Head Start may be spared elimination in the next budget, moms are the most vulnerable when extreme weather hits, and there's a croaking sound coming from rural California.

Economists predict 2025 economic trends amid presidential transition

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Monday, January 6, 2025   

As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office, economists are weighing in on how his promised policies might shape what's ahead in 2025.

Economists pointed to tariffs, the stock market, electric vehicles, agriculture and education as key issues for this year.

Jason Miller, professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, predicted the tariffs Trump has promised will take center stage. He also pointed to signs of a positive tailwind.

"Retailers have entered the holidays with inventory sort of in line with demand conditions," Miller observed. "November sales for motor vehicles were phenomenally strong for light trucks and SUVs. It was, on a seasonably adjusted basis, the third-highest month of all time."

Miller expected importers will stockpile Chinese goods to avoid tariffs but past tariffs failed to create jobs and instead, drove up costs, raising prices for consumers.

Miller projected the first major supply chain story this year could unfold as early as Jan. 15, involving the International Longshoremen's Association. He noted the East Coast and Gulf port contracts are set to expire, raising the threat of more port strikes.

"We may see port strike, Round 2," Miller emphasized. "No one is clear yet on how the incoming Trump administration would respond to that. Would they invoke the Taft-Hartley Act to end that strike, or would they let that play out?"

He added they are also monitoring extreme weather events similar to the polar vortex back in 2018, which could have a substantial effect on the economy.


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