Recent polling from The New York Times and Siena College found President Joe Biden trailing former President Donald Trump in five of the six most crucial battleground states, one of which is Nevada.

In the Silver State, Trump leads Biden by 10 percentage points.

Elaine Kamarck, director of the Center for Effective Public Management with the Brookings Institution, said despite polls showing Biden slipping, compounded with his unfavorable approval rating, does that mean voters won't vote for him and other Democrats in the upcoming election?

She says it isn't a simple answer.

"Maybe there is just no relationship between the president's popularity and down-ballot voting. That voters vote on very different things, and maybe because we have a 'president-centric' kind of culture, maybe we just get that wrong all the time," Kamarck explained.

While The New York Times-Siena College poll comprised just over 3,600 registered voters among all six states, Kamarck said other state-based polls, which struck fear in many Democrats, are composed only of about 600 participants, which she added are not likely to be grasping the entirety of voters' preferences and true attitudes.

Kamarck said looking at the special elections in 2021, the midterms in 2022 and the most recent set of elections this year, Biden's unpopularity doesn't have much to do with Democratic votes. She contends Democrats "over performed expectations" in all three years and increased their margins.

She argues abortion is a huge motivator for Democratic voters. This comes as a Nevada judge recently rejected a proposed 2024 ballot measure, supported by Nevadans for Reproductive Rights, which sought to enshrine reproductive rights, including abortion, in the state's constitution.

"Where the right to choose is front and center on the agenda, abortion is an incredibly powerful motivator. I think in my lifetime in politics, which has been pretty long, it is probably the biggest push I've ever seen, really," Kamarck said.

District Judge James T. Russell deemed the proposal to be too broad and sided with the Coalition for Children and Parents PAC, which sued last month to block the measure. Currently, anyone who is pregnant in Nevada has the right to an abortion within the first 24 weeks of pregnancy. An abortion may be performed after 24 weeks if deemed necessary to save the life of the mother.

Adrian Fontes, Arizona Secretary of State, said he was not shocked but disappointed when he found out the Trump administration had cut funding for the national election security program.

It is housed within the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. A number of employees who worked with election officials to provide assessments and identify election threats were placed on leave pending review. Fontes emphasized the workers were crucial in helping Arizona run a smooth operation last November, despite 15 bomb threats.

Now Fontes, a Democrat, is working to create an independent organization to fulfill a similar role. He is getting support from bipartisan stakeholders around the country.

"We've had our knees kicked out from underneath us," Fontes argued. "Foreign advisories now have an open door to come in and do all kinds of things, including repeating the pattern of bomb threats that are intended specifically to disrupt our elections on Election Day like we saw in November."

Fontes stressed without support and resources provided through the Elections Infrastructure Information Sharing and Analysis Center, the spread of election misinformation and election official deepfakes will increase, posing a direct threat to peoples' ability to vote intelligently.

Fontes acknowledged Trump won the election and has the right to restructure and redirect federal resources, but added the president does not have the right to "eviscerate the ability to protect American elections."

Fontes sent his proposal for the nongovernmental organization to the National Association of Secretaries of State.

"I think across the board people understand the value of what was lost," Fontes explained. "I'm just happy that staff was on top of it and that my office was willing to make this proposal out there for folks to consider."

Fontes noted he has received a positive reception from his Republican colleagues, adding election administrators have a real issue on their hands and he will not sit back with his arms crossed.

"I hate playing the role of canary in the coal mine," Fontes underscored. "But right now, the canary was put on permanent leave and there is nobody protecting the coal miners which are our voters so it is a bad, bad situation."

Support for this reporting was provided by The Carnegie Corporation of New York.


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Indiana lawmakers are considering a plan to block college students from using school-issued IDs to vote.

Sen. Blake Doriot, R-Goshen, said it will prevent fraud. Students argued the change will make voting harder. The proposal affects out-of-state students most, forcing some to travel home to vote.

Manal Hussain, a junior at Indiana University-Indianapolis, said the bill creates unnecessary hurdles for students to cast a ballot.

"Instead of empowering them to be civically engaged this bill place unnecessary barriers in their way," Hussain contended. "Let's be clear that there is no evidence that student IDs are any less reliable than other forms of government-issued identification."

The bill would remove public college IDs from the list of acceptable voter IDs. Right now, students can vote with school IDs if they register in the county where they cast ballots. The bill would require an Indiana government-issued ID instead. Opponents said it creates barriers, especially for students without cars or proper documents. They warned it could further lower turnout in a state with already poor participation.

Doriot cited a conservative group's claim some voters cast ballots in multiple states.

"If these students wish to vote in Indiana, they must establish residency like any other individual that moves to our state," Doriot argued. "Let me be clear, my intention is not to prevent students from voting."

Critics countered there is little proof student IDs cause fraud, and said the bill mainly affects young voters, who tend to vote for Democrats. The House Elections and Apportionment Committee will decide whether to advance the bill. If approved, the full House will vote before it reaches the governor. Students and voting rights groups plan to keep fighting it.


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Republicans in Washington, D.C. remain focused on greatly reducing federal spending. However, a backlash is mounting in Congressional districts, including Minnesota, and some constituents feel ignored. Whether it's executive orders by the Trump administration or budget votes taking shape in Congress, the dramatic downsizing of federal agencies, programs and services has led to heightened concern about the impact on a host of populations.

Brian Vroman, a Grand Rapids resident, said he's worried about the possibility of steep Medicaid cuts. He says even if it's uncomfortable for House Republicans, they still should have face-to-face conversations.

"There's a lot of pent-up anger, frustration and I think that the only way to alleviate that is to have open dialogue. We're not at war with each other," he explained.

Vroman's congressman, Rep. Pete Stauber, R-Duluth, could not be reached for comment. Protesters have gathered outside his office to demand a town hall. GOP leaders have urged a pause on such events to avoid the backlash while painting attendees of recent meetings as "paid activists." Vroman is part of a left-leaning grassroots group, but says he's not paid for his actions and has voted for both parties.

Sarah Jaynes, executive director of the Rural Democracy Initiative, said it's reasonable for voters in conservative districts, including those who consistently vote Republican, to feel blindsided by some of these moves and demand answers. She feels some of the organizing is having an effect.

"[Some] members of Congress are quietly speaking up, and ensuring that funding is continuing to move into their communities," she said.

National political publications have reported that some House GOP members have had "back channel" conversations with the White House to reverse cuts led by Trump adviser Elon Musk. While Democrats have criticized the manner and scope of spending reductions, they too are facing pressure to host more meetings to highlight voter frustration. Some Democrats are now holding town halls in GOP districts.