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Poll findings worsen for Biden; what does that mean for 2024?

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Tuesday, November 28, 2023   

Recent polling from The New York Times and Siena College found President Joe Biden trailing former President Donald Trump in five of the six most crucial battleground states, one of which is Nevada.

In the Silver State, Trump leads Biden by 10 percentage points.

Elaine Kamarck, director of the Center for Effective Public Management with the Brookings Institution, said despite polls showing Biden slipping, compounded with his unfavorable approval rating, does that mean voters won't vote for him and other Democrats in the upcoming election?

She says it isn't a simple answer.

"Maybe there is just no relationship between the president's popularity and down-ballot voting. That voters vote on very different things, and maybe because we have a 'president-centric' kind of culture, maybe we just get that wrong all the time," Kamarck explained.

While The New York Times-Siena College poll comprised just over 3,600 registered voters among all six states, Kamarck said other state-based polls, which struck fear in many Democrats, are composed only of about 600 participants, which she added are not likely to be grasping the entirety of voters' preferences and true attitudes.

Kamarck said looking at the special elections in 2021, the midterms in 2022 and the most recent set of elections this year, Biden's unpopularity doesn't have much to do with Democratic votes. She contends Democrats "over performed expectations" in all three years and increased their margins.

She argues abortion is a huge motivator for Democratic voters. This comes as a Nevada judge recently rejected a proposed 2024 ballot measure, supported by Nevadans for Reproductive Rights, which sought to enshrine reproductive rights, including abortion, in the state's constitution.

"Where the right to choose is front and center on the agenda, abortion is an incredibly powerful motivator. I think in my lifetime in politics, which has been pretty long, it is probably the biggest push I've ever seen, really," Kamarck said.

District Judge James T. Russell deemed the proposal to be too broad and sided with the Coalition for Children and Parents PAC, which sued last month to block the measure. Currently, anyone who is pregnant in Nevada has the right to an abortion within the first 24 weeks of pregnancy. An abortion may be performed after 24 weeks if deemed necessary to save the life of the mother.


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