LITTLE ROCK, Ark. - The agricultural industry in the Midwest is valued at over $135 billion a year. But that economic engine faces increased risk with higher temperatures.

Matt Lewis, director of communications for the Risky Business Project, said his group's new analysis predicted that by the end of the century, climate change could drive down crop yields by as much as 1/7.

"The Grain Belt and Midwest will see expected reductions in crop productivity," said Lewis. "Based on extreme heat, primarily, but also water availability becomes an issue."

He added that weather events are sharply increasing the cost and availability of insurance.

Kevin Smith owns Helena-based Smith Insurance. He said the insurance industry has started adapting to more extreme weather, but it means higher rates.

"We're already seeing that," said Smith. "The next ten years, you're going to see it even more. Rates are going way up, companies are pulling out, and giving you less coverage for more money."

Smith said climate change will be particularly hard on farmers. Huge investments in machinery and irrigation systems can be wiped out by a single storm. And that's on top of all that crops are vulnerable to.

"Probably next to insurance, agriculture is next most likely to take the biggest hits from climate change," predicted Smith. "Because they're so dependent on weather. It can wipe out millions of dollars, and somebody has to pay for that."

Read the report The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States, from the Risky Business Project.


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A large tax hike could appear soon, that would affect Illinois' small businesses still rebounding from the pandemic. One group hopes Congress will act before two bills expire, and the tax increase takes effect.

A small business advocacy group, The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) says one of them - the 20% Small Business Deduction Act - was created to align small business tax rates with those of larger corporate competitors.

The group's Vice President for Federal Government Relations Jeff Brabant said...

"It's difficult for small businesses to be able to compete with a lot of their larger competitors, and increasing prices isn't always a great option for them," said Brabant. "If you're an employee and you go to a small employer who may not have the money to be able to offer great benefits, versus a large employer who can offer those benefits, it's always going to put the smaller employer at a little bit of a disadvantage."

If Congress decides not to renew the 20% Small Business Deduction Act, Brabant predicted that 90% of America's businesses would face additional barriers to growth and hiring more workers.

According to the U.S. Small Business Administration's 2023 Profile report, Illinois has slightly more than 2 million small business employees - which account for 44% of the state's employees.

The other law up for review by the House is the Main Street Tax Certainty Act, which permits small businesses to deduct up to 20% of their qualified business income and make it a permanent deduction.

Brabant noted that the NFIB strongly supports both measures, which expire on December 31, 2025 - and have bipartisan support.

As the country waits to see the presidential election results, he said he believes the plight of small businesses should be the "number one issue" on Congress's mind.

"It shouldn't be a Republican or Democratic issue," said Brabant. "This should be 'small businesses are the foundation of the economy,' and I don't think anyone wants to see Main Street businesses have a tax hike."

Brabant said the organization is glad both presidential candidates have talked about small businesses, because these discussions don't always occur.

He said NFIB's focus is to educate and increase Congress' awareness, and he said he hopes they will act sooner rather than later.




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A large tax hike could be awaiting small businesses still rebounding from the pandemic. One group hopes Congress will act before two bills expire and the tax increase takes effect. The 20% Small Business Deduction Act was created to align small business tax rates with those of larger corporate competitors. The National Federation of Independent Businesses, which advocates for small businesses, wants the laws renewed.

Jeff Brabant, NFIB Vice President, said small businesses have few alternatives for competing with bigger rivals.

"It's difficult for small businesses to be able to compete with a lot of their larger competitors, and increasing prices isn't always a great option for them." If you're an employee and you go to a small employer who may not have the money to be able to offer great benefits, versus a large employer who can offer those benefits, it's always going to put the smaller employer at a little bit of a disadvantage, he explained.

If Congress decides not to renew the Act, Brabant predicts 90% of America's businesses would face additional barriers to growth and hiring more workers. He said the average small business has less than eight employees. According to the U.S. Small Business Administration's 2023 Profile report, Indiana has slightly more than 1 million small business employees - which account for 44% of the state's workers.

The House is also reviewing the Main Street Tax Certainty Act. That allows small businesses to deduct up to 20% of their qualified business income and become a permanent deduction. Both measures are scheduled to expire at the end of next year. The NIFB strongly supports the laws, both of which have bipartisan support. As the country awaits election results, Brabant believes the plight of small businesses should be the number one issue on lawmakers' minds.

"It shouldn't be a Republican or Democratic issue. This should be 'small businesses are the foundation of the economy,' and I don't think anyone wants to see Main Street businesses have a tax hike," he continued.

Brabant said the organization is encouraged that both presidential candidates have discussed small businesses because those talks don't always happen. NIFB's focus is to educate and increase Congress' awareness and lawmakers for them to act sooner rather than later, he added.

Agribusiness has spent $500 million so far to lobby for changes to the next farm bill - in particular to invalidate a California law that bans extreme-confinement veal calves, breeding pigs and egg-laying chickens. Proposition 12, passed in 2018, also requires meat raised elsewhere but sold in California to meet that standard.

Sean Thomas, international director of investigations for the nonprofit Animal Equality, said the Farm Bill proposed by the House Agriculture Committee includes language similar to the EATS Act, which would repeal Prop 12.

"Prop 12, it was overwhelmingly passed in a democratic process by the majority of Californians, and the EATS Act seeks to undermine that and take away any state's ability to just have these most basic, basic standards for the welfare of animals," he said.

Supporters of the EATS Act argue that California's rules are hurting agriculture in other states. The meat industry also lobbies in favor of protein requirements in school lunches and subsidies for livestock operations and dairies. According to the website Open Secrets, meat companies have made more than $27 million in political contributions since 1990.

The government needs to conduct strong oversight of factory farms to guard against pollution in the air and water, Thomas contended.

"If we think of a large-scale industrial pig farm, the amount of waste that it produces is similar to that of a small city. These are farms that are so concentrated with animals that they have open-air lagoons that regularly leach chemicals of these waste products into groundwater," he continued.

The meat industry also funds training courses aimed at social media influencers and students that teach talking points on how to downplay the harms of industrial agriculture.


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